نااطمینانی پارامتر و اثر آن بر سیاست پولی در اقتصاد ایران رهیافتی از مدل اقتصاد باز کینزینی جدید

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

چکیده

در این مقاله اثر نااطمینانی پارامترها بر طراحی سیاست پولی بهینه در اقتصاد ایران بررسی شده است. پس از برآورد  قاعده سیاستی پولی مطابق رابطه تیلور در دو حالت خطی و غیر خطی، از ضرایب این روابط برای بررسی و شبیه سازی اثر نااطمینانی استفاده شده است.  برای استخراج رابطه غیر خطی از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM) طی دوره 91-1350استفاده شده است.  بر اساس برخی از نتایج این تحقیق در حالت وجود نااطمینانی درباره دیرپایی تورم، برای جلوگیری از نتایج نامطلوب در آینده، پاسخ های تهاجمی تر به تغییرات برای بانک مرکزی بهینه تر است.  نااطمینانی پارامترها پاسخ های سیاستی را محتاط تر کرده است.  در رویارویی با نااطمینانی درباره اثر سیاست ها در پاسخ به شوک های اقتصادی پاسخ های احتیاطی بهینه تر بوده است.  در شرایط نااطمینانی عکس العمل های سیاستی بهینه به شکاف تولید و تورم نسبت به حالت اطمینان بیشتر است.  نااطمینانی درباره سیاست تورم هدف، ضرایب تابع عکس العمل بهینه را نسبت به سایر نااطمینانی ها افزایش داده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Parameters Uncertainty and the Effects on Monetary Policy in Iran: a New Keynesian Open Economics Approach

چکیده [English]

In this paper analysis the effects of parameters uncertainty on designed optimal monetary policy in Iran.  For this purpose after the estimate linear and non linear Taylor monetary policy rule, coefficient of this estimation used for simulation model uncertainty during 1971-2012.  General method of moment approach is used for estimation of non-linear model.  The result show that in inflation persistence uncertainty for avoids bad outcome monetary policy in future, robust policy is optimal.  In parameter uncertainty conservatism response is good.  In uncertainty of policy effects in impulse to economic shocks, policy makers should designed less aggressively policy.  response policy to inflation and output gap in uncertainty is greater than the certainty equivalence.  In uncertainty of inflation targeting coefficient of optimal impulse is greater than the other uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • parameter uncertainty
  • optimum monetary policy
  • non linear monetary policy
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