ارزیابی اثر نوسان‌های نرخ ارز حقیقی بر صادرات خدمات فنی مهندسی ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی ‏‏

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی ‏

3 کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی‎ ‎‏ ‏

چکیده

صادرات خدمات فنی و مهندسی به عنوان یک عنصر مهم برای جذب منابع بین‌المللی است. این متغیر تحت تأثیر شرایط اقتصاد کلان کشورها است و نوسان‌های نرخ ارز، یکی از مهم‌ترین متغیرهای اثرگذار در این زمینه است. این پژوهش به ارزیابی تأثیر نوسان‌های نرخ ارز حقیقی بر صادرات خدمات فنی و مهندسی بین ایران و شرکای تجاری در چارجوب الگوی جاذبه می‌پردازد و از داده‌های تابلویی 15 کشور شریک اصلی تجاری ایران طی دوره 2013-2003 و روش حداکثر درست‌نمایی پوآسون‌نما استفاده شده است. نتایج بیانگر اثر منفی و معنادار نوسان‌های نرخ ارز حقیقی، متغیر فاصله و عدم تشابه ساختارهای اقتصادی بر صادرات خدمات فنی و مهندسی ایران با شرکای تجاری در طول دوره زمانی مورد بررسی و همچنین تأثیر مثبت درآمد سرانه ایران و شرکای تجاری، مرز مشترک و دین مشترک بر این متغیر است. در نهایت سیاست‌های اقتصادی مشترک (سیاست پولی و مالی)، تأثیر معناداری نداشته است. بر این اساس توجه به نرخ ارز حقیقی به جای نرخ ارز اسمی، رشد پایدار صادرات این متغیر را می‌تواند منجر شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Export of Technical and Engineering Services in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • mehdi yazdani 1
  • Shirin Arbabian 2
  • Somayeh Jalali 3
1 economics department
چکیده [English]

One of the main elements for attracting international resources is the export of Technical and Engineering Services. This variable is affected by macroeconomic environment of countries and the exchange rate fluctuations areone of the main effective variables in this regard. This study tries to evaluate the effects of the real exchange rate fluctuations on export of Technical and Engineering Services among Iran and its major partners using gravity model framework. Hence,the panel data for 15 trade major partners of Iran during 2003-2013 and Poisson-pseudo maximum likelihood method has been used for this purpose. The results show that the real exchange rate fluctuations, the distance variable and the dissimilar economic structures have negative effect on export of Technical and Engineering Services among Iran and its major partners during the period.Also the GDP per capita of Iran and its trade partners, the common border and the common religion have positive effect on the dependent variable. Finally, the effect of same economic policies (monetary and fiscal policies) on export of Technical and Engineering Servicesis not significant. So, considering the real exchange rate instead nominal exchange rate by policy makers, can lead to sustainable growth in export of Technical and Engineering Services.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Export of Technical and Engineering Services
  • Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations
  • Gravity Model
  • Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood

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