اثر نامتقارن قیمت نفت بر بازار مسکن در ایران: کاربردی از رهیافت ARDL غیرخطی

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

با مرور روند حرکتی قیمت نفت در اقتصاد ایران به نظر می‌رسد که دوره‌های رونق نفتی با افزایش قیمت مسکن همراه است ولی عکس چنین رابطه‌ایی در دوره‌های رکود نفتی به چشم نمی‌آید. از اینرو تحلیل رابطه بین قیمت نفت و قیمت مسکن نیازمند الگویی نامتقارن است. در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است تا با استفاده از مطالعه شین و دیگران(2014)، تاثیر قیمت نفت بر قیمت مسکن در قالبی نامتقارن طی سال‌های 94-1351 مورد واکاوی قرار گیرد. برای این منظور از رهیافت خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج وجود رابطه نامتقارن بین قیمت نفت و شاخص قیمت مسکن را تایید می‌نماید. به نحوی-که در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت افزایش قیمت نفت اثری مثبت و معنادار بر قیمت مسکن دارد در حالی که کاهش قیمت نفت با اثری معنادار همراه نیست. در مجموع نتیجه پژوهش حاضر، توضیح جدیدی از چرخه تجاری بازار مسکن را ارائه می‌دهد و قیمت جهانی نفت به عنوان یک متغیر اثرگذار در این چرخه معرفی می‌گردد. ولی نقش این متغیر تنها در دوره افزایش قیمت نفت تایید شده و نمایان می‌شود. یافته دیگر آنکه در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده اثری مثبت و معنادار بر قیمت مسکن دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Asymmetric Effect f Oil Price on Residential Market in Iran: Application of NARDL Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • shahryar zaroki
  • mani motameni
Assistant Professor in Economics, University of Mazandaran
چکیده [English]

Looking at the trend of oil price in Iran economy, it seems that the oil boom periods have been accompanied by an increase in residential prices, but there isn’t reverse of this relation in oil recession periods. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship between residential price and oil price requires an asymmetrical model. In this study, the effect of oil price on housing price in asymmetric shape in 1972-2015 periods has been analyzed using Shin et al. (2014). For this purpose, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach has been used. The results confirm the asymmetric relationship between oil price and the residential price index. So that, in the short and long run, the increase in oil price has a positive and significant effect on residential price, while the decreasing in oil price does not have a significant effect. In summery the result of this study provides a new explanation of the Business cycle of the residential market and the global oil price is introduced as an effective variable in this cycle. But the role of this variable is confirmed only during the period of increasing oil price. Another finding is that consumer price index has a positive and significant effect on residential price in the short-run and long-run.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil Price
  • Residential Market
  • NARDL

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