تحلیل حساسیت تاثیر قیمت نفت بر رفاه اقتصادی و عرضه کالای عمومی در ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه مدیریت و بانکداری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مهاباد، مهاباد، آذربایجان غربی

10.22080/iejm.2019.14352.1603

چکیده

اقتصاد کشورهای صادر کننده نفت از جمله ایران، بطور شگفت انگیزی تحت تاثیر درآمد حاصل از فروش نفت و به تبع آن، قیمت جهانی آن می‌باشد. هدف تحقیق حاضر، بررسی تاثیر کاهش قیمت نفت بر رفاه اقتصادی، عرضه کالای عمومی، و تحلیل حساسیت تغییر رفاه اقتصادی، در ایران می‌باشد. به این منظور مدل چند ناحیه‌ای تعادل عمومی، ویژه تجارت جهانی، مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. برای ایجاد انبوهش داده ها، کشور ایران، کشورهای صادر کننده نفت، و بقیه کشورهای جهان بعنوان نواحی اقتصادی، ده بخش عمده اقتصادی و پنج عامل تولید در انبوهش جدید از پایگاه داده های مدل، انتخاب شدند. پس از تغییر روش بستن مدل، کاهش قیمت نفت، شبیه سازی شد. یافته های تحقیق نشان داد که این شوک سیاستی باعث کاهش تولید، درآمد عوامل تولید، و مصرف کالای عمومی و خصوصی می‌شود. همچنین کاهش رفاه اقتصادی و مطلوبیت در بخش خصوصی و دولتی مشاهده گردید. سپس با تغییر پارامترهای کشش در مدل، نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد که در سطح اعتماد95/0 کاهش در متغیرهای فوق، چشمگیر می‌باشد. کاهش سطح عمومی قیمتها، کاهش ارزش و مقدار تولید ناخالص داخلی، تغییر ترکیب مصرف از دولتی به خصوصی و تغییر سلیقه خانوار از مصرف واردات به تولید داخل، از دیگر نتایج کاهش قیمت نفت برای ایران می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity Analysis of Oil Price Impact on Welfare and Public Good's Supply in Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Abdollah Mahmoodi
Management Department, Faculty of Humanities, Mahabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahabad, Iran
چکیده [English]

The economies of oil-exporting countries, including Iran, are surprisingly affected by the oil revenue and, the world oil price. The aim of this study is to assess the impacts of oil price reduction on welfare and public goods supply, and sensitivity analysis of welfare changes in Iran. The GTAP model is used to simulate the policy shock. In the new data aggregation, Iran, oil-exporting countries, and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new created economic sectors which in them the oil introduced as one sector and, five endowments are aggregated. In the new economic closure, price is exogenous variable, and reduction in oil price is simulated in the model as a policy shock. The results show that a reduction in oil price reduced production factors earing, and reduced production and consumption of public and private goods and services. Using equivalent variation (EV), changes in welfare and utility of private and public sectors are negative, and sensitivity analysis shows that, by 95% of the confidence interval, the reduction in welfare is significant. Finally, deflation, reduction in GDP and changes in consumption combination from the public to the private sector, changing consumer tastes consumption of domestically produced rather than imported goods are the other impacts of reduction in oil price. Based on the results of the research, it is imperative for the government to seriously endeavor to stabilize or raise global oil prices.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Consumption composition
  • Endowments
  • GTAP
  • Welfare decomposition
  • Utility

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