تأثیر وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد در کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه: رهیافت رگرسیون آستانه‌ پانلی (روش شبیه‏سازی بوت استرپ)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه کردستان، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، سنندج

چکیده

 با توجه به اهمیت موضوع نابرابری درآمد که یکی از معضلات عمده اقتصاد کلان به ویژه در کشورهای درحال توسعه می‌باشد و با عنایت به تأثیر مستقیمی که وجوه ارسالی بر درآمد خانوارهای دریافت کننده دارد، هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثر وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد می‌باشد.  در این راستا از رویکرد رگرسیون آستانه پانلی برای کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه، در بازه زمانی 2018-2000 با استفاده از روش شبیه‏سازی بوت استرپ جهت تقریب زدن توزیع مجانبی آماره آزمون در نرم افزار استاتا بهره گرفته شده است. یافته‌های حاصل از برآورد مدل خطی غیرآستانه‏ای نشان داد که رابطه بین وجوه ارسالی و نابرابری درآمد منفی و از لحاظ آماری نیز معنادار می‌باشد، به گونه‌ی که افزایش در مقدار وجوه ارسالی میزان نابرابری درآمد را به اندازه 12/0 واحد کاهش می‌دهد. از طرفی دیگر، برآورد مدل اثرات ثابت آستانه‏ای، حاکی از وجود حد آستانه‏ای43/8 درصد برای نرخ تورم و اثرگذاری متفاوت وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد در دو رژیم مختلف تورمی است. با در نظر گرفتن اثر آستانه‏ای، به منظور بررسی اثرات وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد، نتایج از این قرار است که قبل از حد آستانه تورمی (رژیم تورم پایین)، وجوه ارسالی باعث کاهش نابرابری درآمد می‌شود اما در بعد از حد آستانه (رژیم تورم بالا) وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد اثر منفی داشته اما از لحاظ آماری معنادار نبوده است. بنابراین وجود تورم بالا می‌تواند اثرگذاری وجوه ارسالی بر نابرابری درآمد در کشورهای دارای تورم بالاتر از حد آستانه را خنثی کند. همچنین با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر متغیر رشد اقتصادی سبب کاهش نابرابری درآمد گشته اما متغیرهای اندازه دولت، بازبودن تجاری، نرخ رشد جمعیت و نرخ بیکاری سبب افزایش نابرابری درآمد شده‏ندا‏اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Remittances on Income Inequality in Selected Developing Countries: A Panel Threshold Regression Approach (Bootstrap Simulations Method)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saman Ghaderi 1
  • Khaled Ahmadzadeh 1
  • Shlir Sarmasti 2
1 Assistant Prof., Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
2 M.A in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Kurdistan, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Given the importance of income inequality, which is one of the major problems of macroeconomics, especially in developing countries, and considering the direct impact of remittances on the income of recipient households, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of remittances on income inequality. In this regard, the panel threshold regression approach for selected developing countries in the period 2018-2000 using the bootstrap simulation method has been used to approximate the asymptotic distribution of test statistics in Stata software. Findings from estimating the non-threshold linear model showed that the relationship between remittances and income inequality is negative and statistically significant, so that increasing the amount of remittances reduces the income inequality by 0.12 units. On the other hand, estimating the threshold fixed effects model indicates the existence of a threshold of 8.43% for the inflation rate and different effects of remittances on income inequality in two different inflation regimes. Considering the threshold effect, in order to investigate the effects of remittances on income inequality, the results show that remittances before the inflation threshold (low inflation regime), remittances reduce income inequality, but after the threshold (High inflation regime) remittances had a negative effect on income inequality but were not statistically significant. Therefore, the existence of high inflation can neutralize the effect of remittances on income inequality in countries with inflation above the threshold. Also, according to the results of the present study, the economic growth variable has reduced income inequality, but the variables of government size, trade openness, population growth rate and unemployment rate have increased income inequality.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Remittances
  • Income inequality
  • Panel threshold regression
  • Bootstrap simulations method
  • Selected developing countries
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