بررسی رابطه علی کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت بین فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و رشد اقتصادی در استان های ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسنده

دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی این موضوع است که رابطه بین توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و رشد اقتصادی در کل استان ها ی ایران چگونه است؟ این مطالعه در چارچوب مدل تصحیح خطای پانل چند متغیره (PECM) و آزمون های هم انباشتگی و علیت پانل به بررسی رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت بین فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و رشد اقتصادی در استان های مختلف کشور، طی دوره زمانی 1389 تا 1394 می پردازد. برآورد ضرایب بلندمدت با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی تعدیل شده کامل (FMOLS) و برآورد ضرایب کوتاه مدت و روابط علیت با استفاده از روش گشتاور تعمیم یافته (GMM) انجام شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان می دهد که علیت دو طرفه بین رشد اقتصادی و فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات ( هر سه مولفه شاخص توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات ) در کوتاه مدت در کل استان های ایران وجود دارد اما در بلند مدت یک رابطه یک طرفه از شاخص توسعه فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و مولفه های آن به رشد اقتصادی برقرار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Short-Term and Long-Term Relationship of Information and Communication Technology and Economic Growth in Iran's Provinces

چکیده [English]

There is a difference between the relationship between ICT and economic growth. One hypothesis is that the development of information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increased economic growth, and the other hypothesis considers economic growth as an effective factor in the development of information and communication technology. In addition to these two hypotheses, a third hypothesis is also proposed, according to which ICT and economic growth has a two-way causality relationship The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between ICT development and economic growth in Iran's entire provinces.. This study uses panel error correction model and panel co integration and causality tests to investigate short run and long run relationship between ICT and Economic growth in Iran’s province in the time period of 2010- 2015. Long run and short run coefficients estimation have done by using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Pooled Mean Group respectively. The results of this study indicate that there is a the bidirectional causality between economic growth and ICT (all three components of ICT development) in the short term in the whole of Iran, but in the long run there is a one-way relationship from the development index Information and communication technology and its components contribute to economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Information and Communication Technology"
  • " Economic Growth"
  • "Panel Error Correction Model"
  • "Panel Co integration"
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