بررسی نقش و اثرات سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی و عمومی بر اشتغال در استان‌های ایران: با رویکرد گشتاورهای تعمیم‌یافته

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه

چکیده

 با توجه به اهمیت سرمایه­گذاری در بخش­های اقتصادی و تأثیر آن بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد از جمله تولید و اشتغال و با توجه به محدودیت منابع در اقتصاد، بررسی میزان کارایی سرمایه­های به کار رفته در جامعه توسط بخش خصوصی و دولتی از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. لذا در این پژوهش به بررسی اثرات سرمایه­گذاری خصوصی و عمومی بر اشتغال در 30 استان کشور و طی دوره زمانی 1394-1384 با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته و در سه مدل مختلف؛ اشتغال بخش خصوصی، دولتی و کل پرداخته شده است. نتایج برآورد مدل اشتغال خصوصی حاکی از بهبود بازار اشتغال ناشی از افزایش سرمایه­گذاری خصوصی می­باشد که این رابطه مثبت نه تنها در دوره جاری وجود دارد بلکه تابعی از سرمایه­گذاری دوره گذشته نیز هست. در برآورد مدل اشتغال عمومی، تأثیر سرمایه­گذاری عمومی در دوره جاری و گذشته بر اشتغال این بخش منفی و معنادار بوده است. به عبارتی سرمایه­گذاری­های صورت گرفته توسط دولت طی دوره زمانی مورد بررسی نتوانسته است باعث بهبود بازار اشتغال و برطرف کردن معضل بیکاری در کشور شود. این نتیجه حتی در مدل کلی اشتغال نیز مشهود است، بررسی همزمان سرمایه­گذاری خصوصی و عمومی و تأثیر آن بر اشتغال کل، نشان از اثر مثبت سرمایه­گذاری خصوصی و اثر منفی سرمایه­گذاری عمومی بر اشتغال کل است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the role and effects of private and public investment on employment in provinces of Iran: GMM approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kiomars Sohaili 1
  • Shahram Fatahi 1
  • saeedeh mohammadi 2
1 Associate professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
2 M.A. student of Economic Development and Planning, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah
چکیده [English]

Considering the investment importance in the economic sectors and its impact on the macroeconomic variables, including production and employment, and due to limited resources in the economy, the study of the efficiency of capital employed in the society by the private and public sectors have particular importance. Therefore, in this research, the effects of private and public investment on employment in 30 provinces of Iran, during the period of 2005-2015 were investigated using generalized moments method and by three different models: private, government and general employment. The results of private employment model estimation indicate improving labor market caused by increasing private employment, which is a positive relationship not only in the current period but also as a function of past investment. In the estimation of general employment model, public investment effect in the current and past period on employment of this sector has been negative and significant. In other words, investments made by the government have not been able to improve the employment market and solve the unemployment problem. This result is even evident in the total employment model. The simultaneous study of private and public investment and its impact on total employment indicate positive effect of private investment and the negative effect of general investment on total employment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Private Investment
  • General Investment
  • Employment
  • Generalized Moments Method
  • Iran Provinces

مراجع

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 12، شماره 24
اسفند 1396
صفحه 121-148

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 دی 1348
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1348

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