ارزیابی اعتبار سیاست پولی ایران

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده‌ی علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

عنصر کلیدی در اثرگذاری سیاست پولی اعتبار سیاست، یعنی باور کارگزاران اقتصادی به توان و اجرای آن است. وجود بانک مرکزی معتبر کاهش نرخ تورم را با هزینه پایین­تری بدست داده و نگهداری تورم در سطح پایین و باثبات را آسان­تر می­سازد. واکنش­ انتظارات تورمی به تغییرات سیاست پولی مهمترین منبع برای ارزیابی اعتبار بانک مرکزی و وضعیت سیاست پولی است که در دهه اخیر در ارزیابی اعتبار روی آن تاکید می­شود. این مطالعه به کمک ایده منحنی فیلیپس کینزی­های جدید، انتظارات تورمی ضمنی را بر پایه داده­های فصلی شده ایران برای دوره زمانی1380 تا 1394 برآورد کرده و با به­کارگیری الگوی خود رگرسیون با وقفه توزیعی، واکنش این انتظارات تورمی را نسبت به متغیرهای سیاست پولی، تغییر نرخ بهره اسمی و تغییر نرخ رشد حجم پول، برای ارزیابی اعتبار سیاست پولی و بانک مرکزی اندازه­گیری کرده است. نتیجه بدست آمده، نشان می­دهد انتظارات تورمی کارگزاران اقتصادی دوره مورد مطالعه هم در کوتاه­مدت و هم در بلندمدت تاثیر معنی­داری از  متغیرهای سیاست پولی نگرفته است؛ به این معنی که سیاست­ پولی اعمال شده از نگاه آنها از اعتبار لازم برخوردار نبوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Assessment of Monetary Policy Credibility in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Taghinezhad Omran 1
  • Mohammad Ali Ehsani 2
  • Mohsen Rezaee 3
1 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 MA student, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsat, Iran
چکیده [English]

The key element in influencing monetary policy is the credibility of the policy, that is, the belief of economic agents in the ability and implementation of it. The existence of a credible central bank will lower inflation rate at a lower cost and makes it easier to keep inflation at a low and stable level. The reaction of inflation expectations to monetary policy changes is the most important source for assessing the credibility of the central bank and the monetary policy situation, which has been emphasized in credibility assessments in the last decade. This study estimates implicit inflationary expectations based on seasonal data of Iran for the period from 1380 to 1394 by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. By using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model the response of the implicit inflation expectations to monetary policy variables (the nominal interest rate change and the change in the growth rate of money stock) was measured to assess the credibility of monetary policy and the central bank. The results show that the inflation expectations in the studied period were not significantly affected by monetary policy variables in the short term and in the long run. This means that the declared monetary policy was not considered credible by the economic agents.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Credibility
  • Inflation Expectations
  • Monetary Policy

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 13، شماره 25
شهریور 1397
صفحه 39-63

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 دی 1348
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1348

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