اثرات کارایی بانکی و ‌انضباط پولی بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقتصادسنجی و آمار اجتماعی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان-ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

چکیده

خروج از رکود و ورود به مسیر رشد اقتصادی از مهم‌ترین چالش ­های اقتصاد ایران است. با توجه به مرور ادبیات مدل‌های مختلف در زمینه رشد اقتصادی، توسعه بخش مالی همچنان یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل اثرگذار بر رشد اقتصادی است.  توسعه مالی در اقتصاد ایران بانک محور است.  بنابراین، فعالیت بانک‌ها بصورت کارا و سیاست های بانک مرکزی با توجه به انضباط مالی می تواند در رشد اقتصادی استان ها مؤثر بوده و بلعکس عملکرد نادرست و ناسالم آن‌ها نیز می‌تواند بحران‌های اقتصادی در جامعه ایجاد کند. در این پژوهش تلاش شده است با استفاده از یک مدل رشد درونزا، بویژه با تاکید بر تجزیه تحلیل نسبت‌های مالی، اثر کارایی بانک‌ها و انضباط پولی(درواقع عدم انضباط پولی) بر رشد اقتصادی استان‌های ایران در دوره زمانی 1385 تا 1393(جدیدترین داده های قابل دسترسی) بوسیله مدل پنل دیتا برآورد و تفسیر گردد. نتایج این مطالعه با استفاده از روش اثرات ثابت حاکی از این است که متغیرهای توضیحی الگو شامل کارایی بانک ها، بی­انضباطی پولی، کیفیت دارایی بانک ها، درصد باسوادی، ضریب جینی و شاخص فلاکت اثر منفی و معنی دار، درحالیکه شاخص بهره­وری نیروی کار و موجودی سرمایه اثر مثبت و معنا دار بر رشد اقتصادی استان های ایران داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Growth of Iranian Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

  • Esmaiel Abounoori 1
  • Alireza Kashefi 2
1 Professor of Econometric & Social Statistics, Semnan University, Semnan-Iran
2 Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan-Iran.
چکیده [English]

Exit from recession and entering the path of economic growth is one of the main challenges of the Iranian economy. Considering economic literatures of the different models presented in the context of economic growth, the development of the financial sector has been one of the most important factors affecting economic growth. Financial development in Iran is basically "bank-oriented".  Therefore, efficient banking and a disciplinary monetary policy by the Central Bank can be effective on the Provincial economic growth in Iran and vice versa inadequate and unhealthy performance can also create severe economic crises in the society. So in this research, we have tried to estimate and interpret the effect of banking efficiency as well as monetary disciplinary (in fact lack of disciplinary) on economic growth of Iran during the period from 2006 to 2014 (the most recent and available data) on Economic Growth of Iranian Provinces using a model of endogenous growth, particularly analyzing financial ratios. The results using fixed effects method show that Banking efficiency, Monetary indiscipline, asset quality of banks, literacy rate, Gini coefficient and Misery index have a negative and significant effects, while the labor productivity and capital inventory indices have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Iran.



کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Banking Efficiency
  • Economic Growth
  • Panel Data Model
  • Monetary discipline
  • Iran

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 13، شماره 25
شهریور 1397
صفحه 154-180

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 دی 1348
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1348

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