ارزیابی اثرات تحکیم مالی در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی اثر سیاست تحکیم مالی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان کشور است. در این راستا با استفاده از روش اتورگرسیون برداری عامل افزوده ([1]FAVAR) تأثیر تکانه­های انواع نسبت کسری بودجه به GDP به عنوان ابزار سیاست تحکیم مالی بر متغیرهای رشد تولید حقیقی، رشد سرمایه‌گذاری، رشد مصرف بخش خصوصی و تورم در بازه زمانی 1394:4-1363:1 مطالعه شده است. نتایج حاصل از الگوهای پژوهش حکایت از آن دارد که آثار ابزار سیاست تحکیم مالی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان کشور متفاوت بوده و ارائه ابزار سیاستی یکسان جهت تأثیرگذاری مناسب بر تمام متغیرهای مورد نظر دشوار است. نتایج بدست آمده در سه دوره زمانی یکساله، دوساله و چهارساله را می­توان اینگونه عنوان کرد که در دوره زمانی یکساله شناسایی ابزار سیاست تحکیم مالی میسر نیست. اما در دوره زمانی دوساله و چهارساله عمده ترین نوع ابزار تحکیم مالی مبتنی بر کسری مصرفی و کسری بدون نفت است. باید اشاره کرد که کسری مصرفی به صورت درآمد مالیاتی منهای مخارج مصرفی دولت تقسیم بر GDP و کسری بدون نفت به صورت درآمد کل دولت (بدون درآمد نفتی) منهای مخارج جاری تقسیم بر GDP  محاسبه می شوند.



 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating Effects of Fiscal Consolidation Policy on Iran’s Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • saeed karimi potanlar 1
  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi 2
  • Hamid Lall-e-khezri 3
1 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Mazandaran
2 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 PhD student of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
چکیده [English]

The aim of this article is to analyze the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables in Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method, the effect of shock types of deficit ratio to GDP on important macroeconomic variables including total real GDP growth, inflation, private consumption growth and investment growth over the period 1363: 1 -1394: 4 is investigated. The results of research models show that the effect of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables are different, and it is difficult to provide the same policy tool to affect all variables. The results obtained in one-year, two-year and four-year periods indicate that the fiscal consolidation policy cannot be identified during the one-year period. But in the two-year and four-year periods, the main instrument of fiscal consolidation is deficit-deflation and deficit-free oil. It should be noted that the consumption deficit is calculated as tax revenue minus the consumption expenditure of the government divided by GDP and the deficit without oil as the total state revenue (without oil revenue) minus current expenditures divided by GDP.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Consolidation
  • Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR)
  • Budget deficit

مراجع

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 13، شماره 26
دی 1397
صفحه 57-78

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 13 تیر 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مرداد 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 24 شهریور 1397

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