بررسی و اندازه گیری واکنش سیاست گذار پولی به نوسانات بازار سهام در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز ، شیراز ، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین بازارهای مالی، بازار سهام است که بسیاری از محققان توسعه آن را یکی از کلیدهای دستیابی به رشد بلندمدت اقتصاد می­دانند. بی­توجهی به بازار سهام و افزایش نوسانات در این بازار به حرکت سیستم مالی کشورها آسیب می­رساند و از روش­های مختلف نظیر اثر ثروت و سرمایه­گذاری بر عملکرد و رشد اقتصادی اثر منفی می­گذارد. لذا توجه به نوسانات بازار سهام و کنترل این نوسانات جهت ایجاد جریان مالی میان بخش­های مختلف اقتصادی اهمیت ویژه­ای دارد. ازاین‌رو در این پژوهش با تمرکز بر اثر ثروت به‌منظور بررسی واکنش سیاست­گذار پولی به نوسانات بازار سهام یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی در شرایط اقتصاد باز، متناسب با ساختار اقتصاد ایران طراحی گردیده است. پارامترهای الگوی ارائه‌شده با استفاده از روش بیزین[1] و با استفاده از داده­های فصلی طی دوره زمانی 1370-1394 تخمین زده‌شده‌اند. نتایج حاصل از شبیه­سازی مدل با بهره­گیری از پارامترهای برآوردی حاکی از آن است که در اثر بروز تکانه­های پولی و سهام شاخص سهام از سطح بنیادی خود منحرف می­گردد و بانک مرکزی به‌منظور جلوگیری از نوسانات بازار سهام رشد پایه پولی را کاهش می­دهد.




 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating and measuring the monetary policy response to fluctuations of the stock market in Iran's economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nima Nilforoushan 1
  • Ebrahim Hadian 2
  • Ali Hussein Samadi 2
  • Parviz Rostamzadeh 3
1 PhD student,, Faculty of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Corresponding author, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
3 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The lack of attention to the stock market and the increase in fluctuations in this market will undermine the movement of the financial system of the countries, and will negatively affect various methods such as the effect of wealth and investment on performance and economic growth. Therefore, paying attention to stock market fluctuation and controlling these fluctuations is especially important for creating financial flows between different sectors of the economy. Therefore, in this research, in order to investigate the monetary policy response to stock market fluctuations with a focus on the effect of wealth, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in open economy conditions is designed to fit the structure of Iran's economy. The parameters of the proposed model are estimated by using the Bayesian method and using quarterly data during the period of 1991-2015. The results of model simulation indicate that due to the occurrence of a shock to the monetary and stock the stock index is diverted from its fundamental level and the central bank, in order to prevent fluctuations in the stock market, decreases the monetary base growth. Also, the interest rate shock causes stock index, consumption, total output, and imports to drop. Reducing the interest rate by the central bank will cause the stock index to return to equilibrium level after 10 periods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary policy
  • Stock market
  • Iran's economy
  • Monetary shock
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