بررسی اثر مالیات سبز بر مصرف انرژی‌های فسیلی (بنزین، گاز طبیعی و نفت کار) در ایران با استفاده از الگوی تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 مربی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد بندرعباس، بندرعباس، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

3 نویسنده مسئول، دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

چکیده

در این مطالعه به بررسی اثر وضع مالیات سبز در قالب سناریوهای مختلف (پایه، 5%، 10% و 20%) بر مصرف انرژی­های فسیلی (نفت­گاز، بنزین و گاز طبیعی) در ایران با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه­پذیر پویای بازگشتی پرداخته ­شد. کالیبراسیون مدل با بکارگیری ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 و سناریوی پایه (0% اعمال مالیات سبز بر انرژی­های فسیلی) صورت پذیرفت. داده‌های مربوط به برآورد مدل تحقیق به صورت فصلی برای دوره 95-1387 گردآوری شد. همچنین، جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها از نرم‌افزار متلب استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که همراه با افزایش نرخ وضع مالیات سبز، اگر یک شوک مثبت به اندازه یک انحراف معیار (1%) بر تولیدناخالص داخلی وارد شود، از روند افزایش مصرف نفت­گاز، گاز طبیعی و بنزین کاسته می­شود. همچنین، با اعمال 0% و 5% مالیات سبز، مصرف انرژی­های فسیلی مورد بررسی کارایی نداشته، با اعمال 10% مالیات سبز، مصرف گاز طبیعی و بنزین کارایی داشته، لیکن مصرف نفت­گاز کارایی ندارد. با اعمال 20% مالیات سبز، مصرف انرژی­های فسیلی مورد بررسی کارایی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Studying the Effect of Green Tax on Fossil Energies Consumption (Gasoline, Natural gas and Oil gas) in Iran Using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (RDCGE)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Salman Sotoudehnia Korrani 1
  • Mohammadtaher Ahmadshadmehri 2
  • Seyed MohamadJavad Razmi 3
1 Faculty member of Bandar Abbas Islamic Azad University, BandarAbbas, Iran
2 Associate professor, Faculty of Administrative and Economics sciences,, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,, Iran
3 Associate professor, Faculty of Administrative and Economics Science,, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study the effects levying various green taxes (base, 5%, 10% and 20%) on Iran’s fossil energy consumption (oil gas (OG), natural gas (NG) and gasoline (GA)), pollutant gas emission and social welfare was studied using a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. In order to RDCGE calibration, the Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM)) and base scenario was used. Required data was gathered during 2008-2016 seasonality. Also, data analyzing Matlab software was applied. Results indicate that in while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of GO, NG and GA. Also, levying 0% and 5% green tax couldn’t make the consumption of mentioned energies efficient, levyeing 10% green tax makes the consumption of NG and GA efficient and levying 20% green tax makes the consumption of mentioned energies efficient. In addition, while increasing green tax, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), reduces the increasing trend of gas pullotants emission and in orther to decreasing gas pollutants emission during economic growth, 10% green tax should be levy. Finally, while increasing green tax from 0% to 5%, 10% and 20%, a positive shock of economic growth (1%), increases the social welfare, less than 1%, more than 1% and less than 1%, respectively. Therefore, between studied scenarios, levying 10% green tax is the best for increasing social welfare.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy consumption
  • Green tax
  • Social welfare
  • IRF
  • RDCGE

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 15، شماره 29
شهریور 1399
صفحه 73-97

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 23 مهر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 27 بهمن 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 31 تیر 1399

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