تحلیلی از اثر تنزی و اثر ضدتنزی در اقتصاد ایران: رویکرد مبدل موجک گسسته و الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری آستانه ای

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بلبلسر، ایران

چکیده

تورم از دو طریق بودجه­ی دولت را تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. تورم از یک سو قدرت خرید درآمدهای مالیاتی را کاهش می­دهد که به اثر تنزی معروف است. از سوی دیگر، تورم بار ناشی از مخارج دولتی و تعهدات آن را به طور حقیقی کاهش می­دهد که به اثر ضدتانزی شهرت پیدا کرده است. ضمناً، باید متذکر شد که تورم نیز از کسری بودجه­ی دولت تأثیر می­پذیرد. در پژوهش حاضر با به کارگیری مبدل موجک گسسته با حداکثر هم­پوشانی و الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری آستانه­ای اثرات متقابل تورم و کسری بودجه­ی دولت در دو حالت کسری کل و کسری  عملیاتی در اقتصاد ایران طی سال­های 1396:3 – 1369:1 از زوایای جدیدی بررسی شده است. نتایج مبتنی بر مبدل موجک نشان می­دهد در افق­های بیش­تر از 8 سال رابطه­ی علّی میان هر دو نوع کسری بودجه با تورم دو طرفه است. بر اساس نتایج برآورد الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری آستانه­ای، در تورم­های فصلی کم­تر از 28/6%، کسری بودجه­ی کل در رویارویی با تکانه­ی تورم افزایش شدیدی پیدا می­کند. هم­چنین، کسری بودجه­ی عملیاتی قبل و بعد از آستانه واکنش مثبت به تکانه تورم نشان می­دهد. با این توضیح که در نرخ­های تورم فصلی فراتر از 54/2%، شدت واکنش این متغیر بیش­تر خواهد شد. به عبارتی همواره اثری تنزی قوی­تر از اثر ضد تنزی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

An Analysis of the Terence Effect and the Anti-Tensile Effect in Iran's Economy: Discrete Wavelet Transform Method and a Threshold Vector Autoregressive Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Azam Kazemzade 1
  • Saeed Karimi Potanlar 2
  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi 3
1 PhD student, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
چکیده [English]

Inflation affects the state budget in both ways. Inflation, on the one hand, decreases the purchasing power of tax revenues, which is known as the tension effect. On the other hand, the inflationary burden of government expenditures and its obligations actually decreases, which is known as an antithetical effect. Meanwhile, it should be noted that inflation also affects the budget deficit of the state. In the present study, using a discrete wavelet converter with maximum matching and a vector of autoregressive vector autoregression, the interaction effects of inflation and deficit of government in two cases of deficit and total deficit in the economy of Iran in 1396: 1369: 1 is reviewed from a new angle. Results based on the wavelet converter show that in horizons for more than 8 years, the causal relationship is between the two types of budget deficit with bilateral inflation. Based on the results of the estimation of the autumnal regression model, the threshold vector in seasonal inflation is less than 5.7% of the total budget deficit in the face of inflationary swings, which reflects the dominance of the anti-tensile effect of the Tensi Is. In addition, the operating deficit, regardless of the situation, is from the threshold of positive reaction to the swing momentum.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Budget deficit
  • Inflation
  • Discrete wavelet transform
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