اثر شاخص کامیابی و شاخص کارآفرینی را بر رشد اقتصادی حقیقی کشورهای منتخب اسلامی با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون پانل انتقال ملایم آستانه‌ای

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آیت ا... بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران

چکیده

این پژوهش اثر شاخص کامیابی (لگاتوم) LEG و شاخص کارآفرینی GEM را بر رشد اقتصادی حقیقی کشورهای منتخب اسلامی در دوره 2006-2017  بررسی نمود. برای بررسی اثر، از مدل رگرسیون پانل انتقال ملایم آستانه‌ای (PSTR) با استفاده از دو تابع انتقال ملایم مجزا  استفاده شد. در مدل اول و دوم سرعت انتقال بین دو رژیم به ترتیب 589/7 15خ³LEG=">  و 1283/0 15خ³GEM="> ، حد آستانه نیز 11/61 15خ¸LEG=">  و 1/376 15خ¸GEM=">  برآورد شد. سرعت انتقال بین دو رژیم در مدل اول بسیار بالا بود که منجر به شکست منحنی و رویه انتقال شد. متغیرهای شاخص کامیابی و شاخص کارآفرینی با ضرایب 2658/0 و 0211/0 در مدل اول و ضرایب 7232/0 و 2059/0در مدل دوم دارای تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی بودند. بالاترین تاثیر معنی‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی را در هر دو رژیم کامیابی، متغیر نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی به ترتیب با ضرایب 5018/0 و 6366/0داشت و دارای اثر آستانه‌ای نیز است و با انتقال به رژیم بالا تاثیر نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی در رشد اقتصادی افزایش یافت. بیشترین تاثیر معنی‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی حقیقی در رژیم پائین و در رژیم بالای کارآفرینی را  تشکیل سرمایه داخلی به ترتیب با ضرایب 9017/0  و 823/2 داشت. کمترین تاثیر معنی‌دار  بر رشد اقتصادی را نیز در رژیم پائین کامیابی استفاده از اینترنت و در رژیم بالای کامیابی و کارآفرینی سرمایه انسانی داشت. به این ترتیب پیشنهاد گردید کشورهای اسلامی در مسیر گذار به توسعه‌یافتگی بر شاخص‌های کامیابی و کارآفرینی به طور همزمان، به منظور حمایت از تاثیر سایر متغیرهای اقتصادی بر رشد اقتصادی حقیقی توجه ویژه داشته باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of Entrepreneurship Index and Legatum Index on Selected Islamic Countries Economic Growth with the Panel Smooth Transition Regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Asayesh
  • Parviz Jalili Kamju
Assistant Professor in Economics, University of Ayatollah Borujerdi, Broujerd, Iran
چکیده [English]

This research evaluates the effect of the LEG (Legatum) indicator and GEM entrepreneurship index on the real economic growth of selected Islamic countries during the period 2006-2017 by using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model using two distinct gentle transfer functions. In the first and second models, the transfer velocity between two regimes was γ ̂LEG=7.589 and γ ̂GEM=0.1283 the threshold was also estimated to be θ ̂LEG=61.11 and θ ̂GEM=376.1. The transfer speed between the two regimes in the first model is very high, which leads to the refraction of the curve and the transfer surface. The variables of Legatume and entrepreneurial index with coefficients of 0.2658 and 0.0211 in the first model and 0.7232 and 0.2059 in the second model have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The highest impact on economic growth in both Legatume regimes has the economic participation rate variable with coefficients of 0.5018 and 0.6366, which also has a threshold effect, and the effect of the rate of economic participation on economic growth increases with the transition to a high-income regime. The most significant effect on real economic growth in the low diet and in the high entrepreneurial regime is the formation of domestic capital with coefficients of 0.9017 and 2.823, respectively. The least significant effect on economic growth is using the Internet in the low Legatume regime and human capital in the high Legatume and entrepreneurship regime. In this way, it is suggested that Islamic countries in the transition path to development pay special attention to the indicators of success and entrepreneurship simultaneously, in order to protect the impact of other economic variables, on real economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Legatume
  • Smooth transition Function
  • Islamic Countries
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