ارزیابی الگوی رفتاری سازمان اوپک بر قیمت نفتخام بر اساس تحلیل رویکرد رویدادی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

2 نویسنده مسئول، استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

3 استاد یار، دانشکده اقتصاد وحسابداری، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

4 استادیار، دانشکده اقتصاد وحسابداری، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از عوامل ﻣﺆثر بر قیمت جهانی نفتخام، الگوی رفتاری سازمان اوپک با توجه به جایگاه و سهم اعضای آن در عرضهﯼ نفتخام جهان است. براین اساس تأثیر تصمیمات اوپک در مورد سطح تولید نفتخام، مسئله بحث برانگیز در میان سیاستگزاران، تولیدکنندگان و محققان است، به طوری که این موضوع می‌تواند بر قیمت این محصول در بازارهای جهانی تأثیرگذار باشد. با توجه به اهمیت تأثیر تصمیمات سازمان اوپک بر بازار جهانی نفتخام، این تحقیق به بررسی تأثیر نوع بیانیه‌های اعلام شده از سوی سازمان اوپک (افزایش، کاهش و یا عدم تغییرعرضه) بر بازدهی قیمت نفتخام جهانی برنت و وست‌تگزاس اینترمیدیت در طی دوره 1987 تا 2019 بر اساس رهیافت تحلیل رویداد پرداخته است. جنبه اصلی و نوآوری این تحقیق که موجب تفاوت آن با سایر پژوهش‌های این حیطه بوده، بررسی تأثیر بیانیه‌های سازمان اوپک بر قیمت‌های نفتخام بر اساس رویکرد رویدادی و بهره‌گیری از سه رویکرد همزمان در محاسبه بازدهی غیرعادی نفتخام است. نتایج بررسی نشان دهنده واکنش متفاوت بازار نفتخام به نوع بیانیه‌های سازمان اوپک است. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که سازمان اوپک در طی سال‌های اخیر نقش کمتری در تأثیرگذاری بر بازار نفتخام داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Behavioral Pattern of OPEC Organization on the Price of Crude Oil According to the Analysis of the Event Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fariba Shahbodaglou 1
  • Ali Asghar Esmailnia Ketabi 2
  • Azadeh Mehrabian 3
  • Roya Siefipour 4
1 PhD student, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics &Accounting, Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics &; Accounting, Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant professor, Department of Economics,, Faculty of Economics &Accounting, Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the factors affecting oil prices is related to OPEC's behavioral pattern concerning its position and share in the world oil supply. In this regard, the impact of OPEC's decisions and announcement on the level of crude oil production has been identified as a controversial issue among policymakers, producers, and researchers so that it can inevitably affect the price of this product in world markets. In view of that, the main purpose of the present study to scrutinize the impact of the type of announcement made by the OPEC (including Increased, Cut, or unchanged) on Brent's and WTI's global crude oil returns over the period 1987 to 2019 based on the event study approach. Furthermore, the central aspect and innovation of this research, which makes it different from other studies in this area, is mostly associated with the influence of OPEC's statements on crude oil prices based on the event study and the use of three contemporary approaches in calculating abnormal returns. It is concluded the results indicate a different reaction from the crude oil market to OPEC's statement. Likewise, the outcomes obtained from the current study feature that OPEC has been less influential on the crude oil market over recent years.



کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Behavioral pattern
  • OPEC Organization
  • Event approach analysis
  • Crude oil prices

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 15، شماره 29
شهریور 1399
صفحه 323-347

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 11 مهر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 17 آذر 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 آذر 1399

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