نقش کانال اعتباری و نرخ ارز در انتقال سیاست پولی بر بخش مسکن در ایران: رویکرد تصحیح خطای برداری (VEC)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاددانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاداسلامی، واحداصفهان ( خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده

هدف اصلی این مطالعه تحلیل اثرات سیاست پولی بر بخش مسکن از طریق کانال اعتباری و کانال نرخ ارز در ایران با استفاده از رویکرد تصحیح خطای برداری (VEC) است. بررسی نتایج تجربی حاصل از تخمین روابط بین متغیرها، در دوره 1397:1- 1368:1، نشان داد که شوک تسهیلات اعطایی بانک‌ها در کوتاه‌مدت، میان‌مدت و بلند‌مدت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر قیمت و تولید بخش مسکن دارد. همچنین با وجود تأثیر اندک این دو کانال در انتقال اثرات سیاست پولی به بخش مسکن، اگر سیاست پولی از طریق کانال وام‌دهی سیستم بانکی به بخش مسکن منتقل شود، حجم پول بیشترین تأثیر را در تولید و قیمت بخش مسکن دارد و اگر سیاست پولی از طریق کانال نرخ ارز به بخش مسکن منتقل شود، بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی بیشترین تأثیر را در تولید و قیمت بخش مسکن دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Housing Sector through the Credit and Exchange Rate Channels in Iran: A Vector Error Correction (VEC) approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hmid ghadiri 1
  • Hossein Sharifi-Renani 2
  • Saeid Daei Karimzadeh 3
1 PhD student, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Branch, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Associate professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Branch (Khorasghan), Isfahan, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan Branch, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of monetary policy on the housing sector through credit channel and exchange rate channel in Iran using the Vector Error Correction (VEC) approach. An examination of the empirical results of estimating the relationships between variables in1368:1-1397:1 period showed that the small impact of these two channels on the transfer of monetary policy affects the housing sector if monetary policy is transferred through the banking system's lending channel to the housing sector, the volume of money has the greatest impact on the production and price of the housing sector, and if monetary policy through The exchange rate channel is shifting to the housing sector, the debt of the banks to the central bank has the greatest impact on the production and the price of the housing sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Monetary Policy"
  • " Volume of Money"
  • "Banking Facility"
  • "Vector Error Correction Model (VEC)"

مراجع

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 15، شماره 30
بهمن 1399
صفحه 62-83

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 19 آذر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 دی 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 12 بهمن 1399

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