تحلیل همگرایی درآمد سرانه بین استان‌های ایران: رویکرد داده‌های پانلی فضایی پویا

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، واحد قزوین، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق فرضیه همگرایی درآمد سرانه بین استان­های جمهوری اسلامی ایران طی دوره ۱۳۷۹-۱۳۹۷ آزمون شده است. فرضیه همگرایی در مقالات فارسی متعددی حتی در سطح استانی مورد آزمون قرار گرفته است. اما پژوهش حاضر از دو جهت با مطالعات قبلی متفاوت است. اول استفاده از داده‌های تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه واقعی بدون نفت به‌عنوان معیار درآمد سرانه که منجر به حذف سوگیری ناشی از متغیرهای جایگزین خواهد شد. دوم این‌که تمام مطالعات قبلی از برآوردگرهای داده‌های مقطعی برای تخمین معادله همگرایی بتا استفاده کرده‌اند که نتایج آن دارای تورش‌ خواهد بود. اما در این پژوهش از مدل داده­های تابلویی فضایی پویا و تخمین­زن SYS-GMM استفاده شده است که این تورش را حذف خواهد کرد. همچنین برای بررسی تعاملات فضایی بین استان‌ها دو نوع ماتریس به‌کار گرفته شد.
نتایج حاکی‌ست که در دوره مورد بررسی شیب تابع مدل هم‌گرایی بتای مطلق منفی است و فرضیه هم‌گرایی مطلق رد نمی‌شود و میزان این همگرایی مشروط بین استان های کشور معادل 10.5 درصد است. یعنی طی این دوره نابرابری منطقه‌ای در حال کاهش است. به‌علاوه نتایج نشان‌‌دهنده عدم رد فرضیه همگرایی درآمد سرانه و تأیید فرضیه اثرات سرریز ناشی از تعاملات فضایی بین استان­های کشور است. هر دو نوع اثر سرریز ناشی از همسایگی و مهاجرت از نظر آماری معنادار است اما اثرات سرریز ناشی از مهاجرت تأثیر بیشتری نسبت به اثرات سرریز ناشی از همسایگی استان‌ها دارد. تحلیل حساسیت از سه منظر تغییر ماتریس تعامل فضایی، تغییر متغیر جایگزین درآمد سرانه واقعی و تغییر برآوردگر نشان دهنده پایداری نتایج و عدم جدیت سوگیری نمونه کوچک برای برآوردگر SYS-GMM است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing Income Per Capita Convergence among the Provinces of Iran Using a Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Approach

نویسنده [English]

  • Arash Hadizadeh
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the hypothesis of per capita income convergence between the provinces of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 2000-2018 has been tested. The convergence hypothesis has been tested in several Persian articles, even at the provincial level. But the present study differs from previous studies in two ways. First, the use of real GDP per capita without oil data as a measure of per capita income that will eliminate the bias caused by alternative variables. Second, all previous studies have used cross-sectional data estimators to estimate the beta convergence equation, the results of which will be biased. However, in this research, the dynamic spatial panel data model and the SYS-GMM estimator have been used, which will eliminate this bias. Also, two types of matrices were used to study the spatial interactions between the provinces.
The results show that, the slope of the absolute beta convergence model is negative and the hypothesis of absolute convergence is not rejected and the rate of this conditional convergence between the provinces of the country is equal to 10.5%. That is, regional inequality is declining during this period. In addition, the results show that the hypothesis of per capita income convergence is not rejected and the hypothesis of spillover effects due to spatial interactions between the provinces of the country is confirmed. Both effects of neighborhood overflow and migration are statistically significant, but the effects of migration overflow have a greater effect than the effects of overflow due to neighborhoods in the provinces. Sensitivity analysis from the three perspectives of changing the spatial interaction matrix, changing the alternative variable of real per capita income and changing the estimator shows the stability of the results and the lack of seriousness of the small sample bias for the SYS-GMM estimator.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Convergence Hypothesis
  • Dynamic Spatial Panel Data
  • Migration Overflow Effects
  • Neighborhood Overflow Effects
  • SYS-GMM
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