ارتباط میان سرمایه انسانی، بازبودن تجاری و تغییرات ساختاری در کشورهای عضو اوپک: رهیافت خودرگرسیون‏برداری پانلی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی- توسعه اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری، دانشگاه سمنان

2 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، مؤسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‏ ریزی

3 استاد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان،

4 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اداری دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

نقش و اهمیت سرمایه انسانی به عنوان یکی از عوامل شتاب‏دهندۀ توسعه اقتصادی از گذشته مورد توجه پژوهشگران بوده و همچنان نیز ارتباط این متغیر با سایر عوامل تعیین‏کنندۀ آن از موضوعات مورد بحث است. سیاست‏ها و متغیرهای اقتصادیِ بسیاری بر انباشت و سطح سرمایه انسانی کشورها تأثیر دارند. بر پایۀ مطالعات تجربی، تجارت و تغییرات ساختاری از جمله متغیرهای مهمِ اثرگذار بر سرمایه انسانی هستند که با توجه به نتایج پژوهش‏های پیشین، ممکن است نوع ارتباط این متغیرها، تحت شرایط مختلف و در کشورهای گوناگون، متفاوت باشد. بدین ترتیب ارتباط آنها نیازمند شناخت و بررسی دقیق‏تر است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع، مطالعۀ حاضر در پی آن است تا ارتباط سرمایه انسانی، بازبودن تجاری و تغییرات ساختاری را در کشورهای منتخب عضو اوپک بررسی نماید. برای نیل به این هدف، از رویکرد خودرگرسیون‏برداری داده‏های پانلی در دورۀ زمانی 1990- 2019 استفاده شده است. یافته‏های پژوهش حاضر و تجزیه و تحلیل توابع واکنش آنی حاکی از آن است که اثر شوک تغییرات ساختاری بر سرمایه انسانی که با شاخص متوسط سال‏های تحصیل وارد مدل شده، مثبت و اثر شوک بازبودن تجاری بر سرمایه انسانی منفی بوده است. مطابق نتایج تجزیۀ واریانس، بازبودن تجاری و شوک‏های ناشی از آن حتی در بلندمدت نیز سهم چندانی در توضیح تغییرات سرمایه انسانی در کشورهای عضو اوپک ندارد. به نظر می‏رسد با افزایش بازبودن تجاری، افزایش تقاضایی که در این گروه کشورها ایجاد می‏شود، در بخش مواد اولیه صادراتی است که تقاضا را برای سرمایه انسانی کم می‏کند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Relationship between Human Capital, Trade Openness and Structural Changes in OPEC Countries: Panel Vector Auto-Regressive Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samaneh Ebrahimpour 1
  • Gholamali Farjadi 2
  • Esmaeil Abounouri 3
  • Rahman Saadat 4
1 PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management & Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Institute for Management & Planning Studies, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management & Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
4 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management & Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The role and importance of human capital as one of the factors and resources of accelerating economic development has been considered by economic researchers for a long time and is still a challengeable subject. Many economic policies and variables affect the accumulation and level of human capital. According to the empirical researches, trade openness and structural changes are important variables affecting the human capital. However, considering the existing literature, the type of relationship among these variables may vary under different conditions and in different countries. Thus, these relationships need to be examined more precisely. Therefore, given the importance of this issue, the current study sought to examine the relations between human capital, trade openness and structural changes in the selected OPEC countries. To achieve this goal, panel vector auto-regressive approach was used in the period 1990-2019. The findings of this study and the analysis of impulse-response functions showed that the shock of structural changes on human capital was positive in the model with the average years of schooling, while the shock of trade openness on human capital was negative. Moreover, the results of variance decomposition indicated that trade openness do not play a significant role in explaining the changes of human capital in the OPEC countries even in the long run. It seems that trade openness increases the demand of primary sectors which use low-skilled labor and therefore decreases the demand for human capital.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Human capital
  • Trade openness
  • Structural changes
  • OPEC countries
  • Panel-VAR

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 16، شماره 31
شهریور 1400
صفحه 219-243

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 18 اسفند 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 23 خرداد 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 09 تیر 1401

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