کارایی سیاست‌های پولی و تقاضای پول در ایران؛ یک تحلیل عدم تقارن

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد رشته علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا(س)، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصاد، دانشگاه الزهرا(س)تهران، ایران

چکیده

بررسی کلی سیاست‌های ابلاغی بانک‌های مرکزی در کشورهای مختلف نشان می‌دهد که تقاضای پول یکی از مفاهیم کلیدی‌ در تحلیل‌های اقتصاد کلان می‌باشد. براساس معیارهای تحلیل اقتصاد کلان، ویژگی‌های مهمی از تابع تقاضای پول هستند که می‌توانند کارایی سیاست‌های پولی را به طور اساسی تحت تأثیر قرار دهند. یکی از مهم‌ترین این ویژگی‌ها ثبات تقاضای پول است.
در این پژوهش کارایی سیاست پولی و تقاضای پول در ایران با استفاده از داده‌های سری زمانی سال‌های 1398-1369 اقتصاد ایران بررسی شده است. به این منظور، نخست با استفاده از الگوی خود‌رگرسیون با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی(NARDL)، فرضیه وجود عدم تقارن تقاضای پول نسبت به تغییرات نرخ تورم بررسی شده است. سپس، در زیر بخش بعدی با استفاده از الگوی خود‌رگرسیون‌برداری(VAR) فرضیه تغییر در اثر بخشی کارایی سیاست پولی نسبت به عدم تقارن تقاضای پول بررسی شده است.
  نتایج حاصل حاکی از آن است که تکانه‎های مثبت و منفی نرخ تورم، تقاضای پول را به صورت نامتقارن تغییر می‌دهند. با بدست آمدن ضرایب تکانه‌های مثبت و منفی نرخ تورم از الگوی NARDL و وارد کردن این ضرایب به متغیر سیاست پولی، تغییر در اثر‌بخشی کارایی سیاست پولی نسبت به عدم تقارن تقاضای پول، با استفاده الگوی VAR بررسی و اثبات شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Efficiency of Monetary Policies and Money Demand in Iran: An Asymmetric Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shadi Zafari 1
  • Mehdi Pedram 2
1 M.D. in Economic Sciences- Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics- Alzahra University- Tehran- Iran.
2 Department of Economics- Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics- Alzahra University- Tehran- Iran.
چکیده [English]

An overview of the policies announced by the central bank in various cases indicates that the demand for money is one of the key concepts in the analysis of the Macroeconomic. According to the criteria of macroeconomics analysis, there are important features of money demand that can mainly affect the efficiency of monetary policy. One of the most important features of money demand is stability. Monetary policy refers to the adoption of measures to control and regulate the amount of money in circulation to achieve desirable economic goals.
This study examines the efficiency of monetary policy and money demand in Iran. Data have been collected annually for the years 1990-2019. Hence, first, using the Nonlinear Auto-Regression Distribution (NARDL) model, the asymmetry of money demand with respect to changes in inflation has been investigated and proven. Then, using the Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) model, the effectiveness of monetary policy efficiency despite the asymmetry of money demand with respect to the positive and negative shocks of inflation has been studied and analyzed. The results show that positive and negative changes in inflation rate will change the money demand asymmetrically. Also, the effectiveness of monetary policy efficiency in relation to the asymmetry of money demand changes along with the positive and negative inflation rate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Demand of money
  • Monetary policy
  • Asymmetry
  • NARDL. model
  • VAR model
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