ارزش افزودة صنایع کارخانه‌ای و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب: کاربردی از الگوی PVAR

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

ارزش افزودة ناشی از فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای دارای پیامدها و آثار جانبی مثبتی بر اقتصاد ملّی است. بهبود بهره‌وری، افزایش سطح پیچیدگی اقتصاد و تقویت انباشت سرمایه از جملة این پیامدها است. از این رو در برخی مطالعات، نقش صنایع کارخانه‌ای به موتور رشد تعبیر شده است. از سوی دیگر، بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه معمولا موجب می‌شود که سهم مخارج خانوار از محصولات صنعتی و با فن‌آوری‌بالاتر بیشتر گردد. این مهم موجب افزایش تقاضای محصولات کارخانه‌ای و احتمالا موجب بیشتر شدن فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای می‌شود. هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی رابطة متقابل بین ارزش افزودة ناشی از فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای و رشد اقتصادی در بین کشورهای مختلف با استفاده از الگوی PVAR است. محدودیت وجود اطلاعات منسجم و متوالی، تعداد کشورهای نمونة پژوهش را به 21 کشور کاهش داده است. دورة زمانی داده‌ها از سال 1990 تا 2020 است. سهم صنایع کارخانه‌ای از کل تولید کشورهای منتخب، به‌طور متوسط 15 درصد و میانگین رشد اقتصادی در مجموع این کشورها حدود 2 درصد است. نتیجة مطالعه که پایداری آن نیز مورد تایید قرار گرفته است، وجود رابطة همزمان و متقابل بین دو متغیر اصلی تحقیق را رد نمی‌کند. در صورت بروز تکانة مثبت 10 درصدی در ارزش افزوده صنایع کارخانه‌ای، میانگین رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب این پژوهش پس از 7 سال 1 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت و در صورت بروز تکانة مثبت 10 درصدی در رشد اقتصادی، فعالیت صنایع کارخانه‌ای پس از 7 سال حدود 5/0 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. به‌عبارتی اثر صنایع کارخانه‌ای بر رشد اقتصادی بیشتر از اثری است که رشد اقتصادی بر فعالیت کارخانه‌ها می‌گذارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Manufacturing Added Value and Economic Growth Nexus in Selected Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mani Motameni 1
  • Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee 2
  • Sahar Nasrnejad 3
1 Associated Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran.
3 Post Graduate Student of Economics, University of Mazanddaran, Babolsar, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The value added of manufacturing activities has positive effects and side effects on the national economy. Improving productivity, increasing the complexity of economy and strengthening capital accumulation are among these consequences. Therefore, in some studies, the role of manufacturing has been interpreted as a growth engine. In addition, improving the economic conditions and per capita incomes usually increase the share of household expenditures in high-tech industrial products. This will increase the demand for factory products and possibly increase the activity of manufactures. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the value added induced by the activity of manufacturing industries and economic growth among different countries using PVAR model. The limitation of having a consistent set of data has reduced the number of sample countries to 21. The data belongs to the years 1990-2020. The average share of manufacturing in the total production of the selected countries is 15% and the average economic growth in these countries is about 2%. The result of the study, the stability of which has also been confirmed, does not rule out the existence of a simultaneous and reciprocal relationship between the two main variables of the research. In case of a positive 10% shock in the value added of manufacturing, the economic growth of the selected countries of this study will increase by 1% after 7 years and in case of a positive 10% shock in the economic growth, the activity of manufacturing will increase by about 0.5% after 7 years. In other words, the effect of manufacturing on the economic growth is greater than the effect of the economic growth on factory activity.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic growth
  • Manufacturing
  • Panel VAR

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 16، شماره 32
آذر 1400
صفحه 7-22

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 14 مهر 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مهر 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1400

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