بررسی اثر متغیرهای مالی بر رفاه اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه مازندران

2 علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 ;کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه مازندران

4 کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه مازندران

چکیده

مخارج و درآمدهای مالیاتی ازجمله مهم‌ترین ابزارهای مالی می‌باشند که جهت اثرگذاری بر اقتصاد در اختیار دولت قرار دارند. با توجه به شرایط حاکم بر اقتصاد، دولت‌ها با تعیین و اعمال سیاست‌های مالی می‌توانند رفاه اقتصادی قابل‎قبولی را ایجاد نمایند. نقش ابزارهای مالی دولت در رفاه اقتصادی موضوعی بوده است که برخلاف اهمیت آن، در مطالعات داخل و خارج کمتر موردتوجه قرار گرفته است. لذا پژوهش حاضر با هدف محاسبه رفاه اقتصادی طی 5 دهه‌ی اخیر و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر آن تبیین شده است. به همین منظور، نخست، شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی بر مبنای چهار بُعد جریـان مصـرف، انباشت ثروت، نابرابری اقتصادی و نـاامنی اقتصـادی محاسبه شده است. نتایج محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی نشان می‎دهد که بیشترین سطح رفاه با رقم 174 مربوط به سال 1396 و کمترین سطح آن با رقم 71 مربوط به سال 1350 بوده است. سپس اثر ابزارهای مالی دولت و دیگر متغیرها در قالب دو الگو با استفاده از رهیافت خودتوضیحی با وقفه‌های توزیعی طی دوره زمانی 1350 تا 1399 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج بلندمدت از برآورد الگوی پژوهش در دو قالب نشان می‌دهد که مالیات کل اثر معناداری یافت نشده است. همچنین رشد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه حقیقی

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Fiscal Variables on Iran's Economic Well-being

نویسندگان [English]

  • arman yousefi barfurushi 2
  • zahra khalili 3
  • Morvarid Hadidi 4
2 Economics Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran,
3 Master Student in Economics Science, University of Mazandaran
4 4 Master
چکیده [English]

Expenditures and tax revenues are among the most important fiscal instruments available to the government to affect the economy. Considering the prevailing conditions in economies, governments can create acceptable economic prosperity by determining and applying fiscal policies. The role of government fiscal instruments on economic welfare has been an issue that, contrary to its importance, has been less considered in domestic and foreign studies. Therefore, the present study aims to calculate economic well-being during the last five decades and analyze its determinants. For this purpose, first, the index of economic well-being has been calculated based on four dimensions of consumption flows, wealth stocks, economic inequality and economic insecurity. The results of calculating the index of economic well-being show that the highest level of economic well-being with 174 is related to 2017, and the lowest level with 71 is related to 1971. Then, the effect of government fiscal instruments and other variables in the form of two models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 1971 to 2020 has been examined. The long-term results of estimating the research model in two formats show that the size of the government and the ratio of current expenditures to construction have a direct (favorable) and reverse (unfavorable) effect on economic well-being, respectively. Direct and indirect taxes have favorable and unfavorable effects on economic well-being, respectively. However, no significant effect has been found for total taxation. Also, economic growth and real per capita income directly (favorably) and inflation reversely (unfavorably) affect economic well-being. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that economic policymakers for increasing the level of economic well-being in Iran, implement an expansionary fiscal policy with an emphasis on increasing construction spending (to the extent that it does not replace private investment) and reducing indirect taxes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Well-Being
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Iran
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