بررسی اثر نوسانات متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر ضریب جینی دهک های درآمدی در ایران با رویکرد رگرسیون فازی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 استاد امار دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

عدم قطعیت متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی آثار جبران ناپذیری را بر پدیده های اقتصادی تحمیل می کند. یکی از این پدیده ها نابرابری در توزیع درآمد است. از این رو بررسی تاثیر عدم قطعیت متغیرهای کلان بر توزیع درامد نیازمند مدلسازی دقیق است. در این مقاله با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون فازی با ضرایب متفارن و نا متقارن در محیط برنامه متلب وگمز به بررسی عدم قطعیت متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر ضریب جینی دهک های درآمدی در ایران برای دوره زمانی 1397- 1374 پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که دامنه ی پهنای راست و چپ ضریب جینی تمام دهک های درآمدی به جز دهک دوم و هشتم تا سال 1390 نوسان قابل توجه ی نداشته است. افزایش نوسان دامنه ی پهنای راست دهک درآمدی دوم بیانگر افزایش نابرابری و تاثیر پذیر بودن این دهک از عدم قطعیت متغیرهای کلان است. کاهش چشمگیر دامنه نوسان پهنای راست دهک درآمدی هشتم در سال 1388 ناشی از تحولات اقتصادی و بهبود توزیع درامد است. همچنین افزایش دامنه پهنای راست و چپ ضریب جینی دهک های درآمدی به خصوص دهک بالا در سالهای بعد از 1390 بیانگر افزایش نابرابری در توزیع درامد در سال های مذکور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Fluctuations of Macroeconomic Variables on the Gini Coefficient of Income Deciles in Iran with Fuzzy Regression Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • REZA Ashraf Ganjaoee 1
  • اکبری فرد Hossein 1
  • Seyed Abdolmajid Jalaei Esfandabadi 2
  • Masha .. Allah mashinchi 3
1 Kerman Shahid Bahonar University
2 Member of the faculty of the Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
3 Professor of Statistics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

The uncertainty of macroeconomic variables imposes irreversible effects on economic phenomena. Therefore, it is necessary to avoid the effects of uncertainty on macroeconomic variables. One of these phenomena is income inequality. Hence, investigating the effect of macro variables uncertainty on income distribution requires careful modeling. In this paper, using the fuzzy regression model with symmetric and asymmetric coefficients in MATLAB and GSM program environment, we investigate the uncertainty of macroeconomic variables on Gini coefficient of income deciles in Iran for the period 1995-2007. . The results show that the Gini coefficient of the right and left widths of all income deciles except for the second and eighth deciles did not fluctuate significantly until 2011. The increase in the fluctuation of the right-income declining amplitude of the second decile indicates the inequality and the effectiveness of this decile due to the uncertainty of the large variables. The dramatic decline in the amplitude of the 8th Right Decade Width fluctuation in 2009 is due to economic developments and improved income distribution. Also, the increase in the amplitude of the right and left Gini coefficients of income deciles, especially the upper deciles in the years after 1390, indicates an increase in inequality in the income distribution in these years. As such, this inequality is more severe in the tenth income deciles, which makes the rich richer. The most common criteria for MSE, RMSE, MAPE, MAE are used to evaluate the results, which shows the excellent performance of fuzzy coefficient regression model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Income deciles
  • macro variables uncertainty
  • fuzzy regression
  • macro variables

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 17، شماره 35
آبان 1401
صفحه 105-127

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 14 اردیبهشت 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 04 اردیبهشت 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 خرداد 1400

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