بررسی اثر تکانه های اسمی و حقیقی بر شدت مصرف انرژی در ایران : یک رهیافت ساختاری

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

2 دانشگاه مازندران

3 UNIVERSITY OF MAZANDARAN

چکیده

انرژی به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین نهاده های تولید و همچنین به‌عنوان یکی از ضروری‌ترین کالاهای مصرفی نهایی قلمداد می گردد . اگر شاخص شدت مصرف انرژی معیاری جهت ارزیابی بهره‌وری انرژی در نظر گرفته شود، با وقوع تکانه‌های اسمی و حقیقی در اقتصاد، این شاخص تغییر می کند. هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی تأثیر تکانه‌های اسمی و حقیقی در اقتصاد بر شدت مصرف انرژی در ایران می باشد. برای این منظور از تکانه نقدینگی و مخارج دولت بعنوان تکانه‌های اسمی ، و از تکانه نرخ ارز حقیقی و بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید به‌عنوان تکانه‌های حقیقی استفاده شده است. با توجه به داده‌های سری زمانی 1399-1353، از طریق الگوی خود رگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR)، مدل تحقیق برآورد گردیده است. نتایج حاصل از توابع واکنش آنی و تجزیه واریانس نشان میدهد: اثر تکانه نرخ ارز حقیقی و نقدینگی بر شدت مصرف انرژی مثبت و پایدار و اثر تکانه مخارج دولت و تکانه بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید ، منفی و پایدار بوده‌است. همچنین تکانه‌های حقیقی (بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید و نرخ ارز حقیقی) نسبت‌ به تکانه های اسمی (مخارج دولت و حجم نقدینگی) سهم بیشتری در تغییرات شدت مصرف انرژی داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Nominal and real Shocks on the Energy Intensity in Iran: A structural approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yousef Eisazadeh Roshan 1
  • Mani Motameni 2
  • sheyda lak 3
1 Faculty member of Economics at University of Mazandarn
2 University of Mazandaran, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Science
3 UNIVERSITY OF MAZANDARAN
چکیده [English]

The issue of energy efficiency is very important due to the limitation of non-renewable resources, greenhouse gas emissions, loss of green areas, global warming, and environmental pollution. The importance of this issue in Iran is twofold due to the dependence of the country's foreign exchange earnings on energy resources. The energy intensity index, which measures the energy consumed for GDP, is one of the most important indicators for assessing energy efficiency. This index is affected by many nominal and real economic, political, and social variables that need to be examined to improve energy efficiency, the effect of these factors on the intensity of energy consumption. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of nominal and real impulses in the energy intensity in Iran According to the time series data of 1353-1399, the research model itself regression (SVAR) model is estimated. The results of the instantaneous reaction functions and analysis of variance show that the effect of the real exchange rate and liquidity on the intensity of positive and sustainable energy consumption and the impact of government expenditure and total productivity of the total production factors has been negative and stable. The also has a negative effect. Also, real impulses (productivity of total production factors and real exchange rates) have a greater contribution to the intensity of energy intensity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Nominal Shocks
  • Real Shocks
  • Energy Intensity
  • SVAR
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