کاربست مدل تعادل عمومی جهت سناریوسازی اتخاذ سیاست پولی مناسب در شوک‌های اقتصادی ناشی از بحران‌های اجتماعی در ایران (مطالعه موردی شیوع بیماری کرونا)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

در این مطالعه به تعیین سیاست پولی بهینه جهت کاهش اثرات منفی شوک ناشی از شیوع بیماری کرونا بر تولیدناخالص داخلی، رفاه کل و اشتغال در ایران با بکارگیری مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد اتخاذ سیاست پولی انبساطی معادل 5% کاهش نرخ ذخیره قانونی، باعث کاهش اثرات منفی شوک ناشی از شیوع بیماری کرونا بر تولیدناخالص داخلی، رفاه کل و اشتغال در مقایسه با عدم اتخاذ سیاست پولی می‌شود. همچنین، اتخاذ سیاست پولی انبساطی معادل 10% کاهش نرخ ذخیره قانونی، باعث کاهش بیشتر اثرات منفی شوک ناشی از شیوع بیماری کرونا بر متغیرهای مورد بررسی در مقایسه با 5% کاهش نرخ ذخیره قانونی و اتخاذ سیاست پولی انبساطی معادل 20% کاهش نرخ ذخیره قانونی، باعث کاهش بیشتر اثرات منفی شوک ناشی از شیوع بیمار کرونا بر متغیرهای مورد بررسی در مقایسه با 10% کاهش نرخ ذخیره قانونی می‌شود. بر این اساس، به مقامات پولی پیشنهاد می‌شود، در شرایط مشابه اقدام به اتخاذ سیاست پولی انبساطی نمایند تا از این طریق بانک‌های تجاری بتوانند تسهیلات در اختیار خانوارها (جهت تحریک تقاضای کل و جلوگیری از کاهش تولیدناخالص داخلی) و تولیدکنندگان (جهت عدم اخراج یا تعدیل نیروی کار) به‌منظور کاهش رفاه کل جامعه قرار دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Applying the General Equilibrium Model to Create a Scenario for the Adoption of a Suitable Monetary Policy in Economic Shocks Caused by Social Crises in Iran (A Case Study of the Outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojtaba Hajizadeh 1
  • Mehrzad Ebrahimi 2
  • hashem zare 2
1 PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Iran's economy faced the problem of Coronavirus when macroeconomic variables did not show a suitable situation due to economic sanctions. Therefore, in this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on GDP, total welfare, and employment in Iran using a social accounting matrix (SAM) and a new model of recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE). Results showed that the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables compared to not adopting monetary policy. Moreover, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of the Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Additionally, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of shock caused by the outbreak of Coronavirus on investigated variables more than adopting a monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate. Based on this, it is suggested that the monetary authorities adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate total demand and prevent the reduction of gross domestic production) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) to reduce the welfare of the whole society.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Optimal monetary policy
  • outbreak of Coronavirus disease
  • macroeconomic variables
  • recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model
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