بازنگری اثرگذاری سیاست‌های مالی و پولی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران با تمرکز بر تنش بخش مالی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

تحولات اخیر در اقتصاد جهانی به ارزیابی دوباره و تفصیل بعضی از مفاهیم اقتصادی منجر شده است. یکی از تغییرات در نظریات اقتصادی و مالی، اهمیت فراوان رابطه بین دو بخش حقیقی و بخش مالی در اقتصاد است. در این راستا، بعد از بحران مالی جهانی سال 2007، اثرگذاری سیاست‌های پولی و مالی بر بخش حقیقی با مناقشات بسیاری همراه بوده است. با توجه به آن‌چه ذکر شد، پژوهش حاضر کوشیده است در مرحله اول شاخصی برای بخش مالی در اقتصاد ایران معرفی نماید تا بتوان ابعاد مختلف این بخش را نمایندگی کند . در ادامه، از الگوی رگرسیون برداری آستانه‌ای استفاده شد تا آثار غیرخطی سیاست‌های مالی و پولی با در نظر گرفتن تنش مالی بر رشد اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی 1397 – 1369 مشخص شود. نتایج نشان دهنده‌ی آن است که واکنش رشد اقتصادی نسبت به سیاست‌های پولی و مالی با لحاظ تنش در بخش مالی متفاوت است. به طوری که تنها سیاست پولی اثر غیرخطی بر رشد اقتصادی داشته که به اوضاع تنش مالی وابسته است. سیاست مالی فارغ از وضعیت تنش، اثر یکسانی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد که از لحاظ مقدار همواره نسبت به سیاست پولی بیش‌تر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Review on the Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Economic Growth in Iran Focusing on Financial Sector Stress

نویسندگان [English]

  • Javad Pakdin 1
  • Ahmad Sabahi 2
  • Narges Salehnia 3
1 Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Recent developments in the global economy have led to re-evaluation and elaboration of some economic concepts. One of the changes in economic and financial theories is the great importance of the relationship between the two real and financial sectors in the economy. In this regard, after the global financial crisis of 2007, the impact of monetary and financial policies on the real sector has been accompanied by many controversies. According to what was mentioned, the present research has tried to introduce an index for the financial sector in Iran's economy in the first stage, so that it can represent the different dimensions of this sector. In the following, the threshold vector regression model was used to determine the nonlinear effects of financial and monetary policies considering the financial stress on economic growth during the period of 1369-1397. The results show that the reaction of economic growth to monetary and financial policies is different depending on the tension in the financial sector. So that only monetary policy has a non-linear effect on economic growth, which is dependent on financial stress. Regardless of the state of tension, fiscal policy has the same effect on economic growth, which is always greater than monetary policy in terms of quantity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Policy
  • Monetary Policy
  • Financial Stress Index
  • Threshold Vector Autoregression Model
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