پیری جمعیت ، تورم و صندوق های بازنشستگی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی گرایش توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی

چکیده

روند رو به رشد سالمندی جمعیت ،کاهش نرخ باروری در ایران ، افزایش تصاعدی مستمری بگیران و کاهش کسور پردازان صندوق های بازنشستگی را با چالش های بسیاری مواجه کرده است ، دلایل فوق و مواردی دیگر باعث کسری بودجه ی شدید در صندوق های بازنشستگی شده ، این کسری در صندوق ها باعث نگرانی شدید برای اعضای صندوق ها که آرامش و امنیت دوران سالمندی آن ها در گرو کارکرد درست صندوق ها می باشد شده است و از آن جایی که پرداخت مستمری به سالمندان لاجرم است ، این کسری بایستی توسط دولت پرداخته شود و تبدیل به یکی از ابر چالش ها برای دولت شده است ،
با در نظر گرفتن بین دوره ای بودن صندوق های بازنشستگی به بررسی بدهی های صندوق های بازنشستگی از سال ۱۳۸۸ تا سال ۱۴۰۱ پرداخته و با استفاده از مدل تعمیم یافته دایموند عدد دقیق حقوق پرداختی ، در آمد ناشی از کسور و در انتها کسری این صندوق های بازنشستگی کشوری و لشکری که بزرگترین میزان کسری را دارند ، برای سال های ۱۴۰1 تا ۱۴۱۰ پیش بینی شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Aging inflatable populations and pension funds

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Mohseni 1
  • Azad Gharib Pour 2
1 Faculty Member of Economics
2 Iran university of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

The growing trend of population aging, declining fertility rates in Iran, continuous increase in pension recipients, and decreasing number of pension contributors have posed numerous challenges for pension funds. These factors, along with other reasons, have resulted in severe budget deficits in pension funds. These deficits have caused significant concern among fund members, as their peace of mind and retirement security depend on the proper functioning of the funds. Since providing pensions is an essential obligation, the government should address these deficits. However, they have turned into major challenges for the government. Every year, with the devaluation of the national currency, the expenses of pension funds increase, while the number of contributors decreases, putting a greater burden on the country's current budget.
This paper examines the pension fund debts from 2009 to 2021, considering the cyclical nature of pension funds. Using the generalized extended Diamond model, the precise amount of pension payments, income from contributions, and ultimately the deficits of these funds have been predicted for National and military pension funds for the years 2022 to 2031
his paper examines the pension fund debts from 2009 to 2021, considering the cyclical nature of pension funds. Using the generalized extended Diamond model, the precise amount of pension payments, income from contributions, and ultimately the deficits of these funds have been predicted for National and military pension funds for the years 2022 to 2031

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Population aging
  • Diamond
  • Pension funds
  • swelling
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