اثر سلیقه مصرف‌کننده بر نرخ واقعی ارز در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران

4 استایار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد فیروزکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، فیروزکوه، ایران

چکیده

مقاله حاضر به بررسی تغییر سلیقه مصرف‌کنندگان ایرانی از کالاهای داخلی به خارجی و تاثیر آن بر نرخ واقعی ارز می‌پردازد. برای این منظور یک مدل نظری از رفتار مصرف‌کننده که تابع مطلوبیت شامل کالای داخلی و خارجی است ارائه شده و با نرخ واقعی ارز مرتبط شده است. سپس با استفاده از رگرسیون سری زمانی با روند ضمنی و تکنیک حالت فضا تاثیر سلیقه به صورت پویا بر نرخ واقعی ارز در طی سال‌های 1353 تا 1400 برآورد شده است. در این مطالعه تاثیر سلیقه، مترادف با تغییر در ترجیحات مصرف‌کننده در نظر گرفته شده است که بخشی از روند ضمنی است. نتیجه تخمین نشان می‌دهد که تاثیر سلیقه به صورت پویا اثر کاهشی بر نرخ واقعی ارز گذاشته است، به طوری که عرض از مبدا رگرسیون هر سال کاهش یافته است. همچنین اثر بهره‌وری و درآمد سرانه بر نرخ واقعی ارز مثبت و معنادار است اما تاثیر درآمد نفت معنادار نیست. نتیجه عملی اینکه در طی 47 سال اخیر سلیقه مردم ایران با روند ملایم به مصرف کالاهای تجاری خارجی متمایل شده و این امر یکی از علت‌های کاهش ارزش واقعی پول ملی بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Consumer Taste on the Real Exchange Rate in Iran's Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Nadali 1
  • Saleh Ghavidel 2
  • Abudreza Talaneh 3
  • parvaneh salatin 4
1 PhD Student, Department of Economics, Firuzkuh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Firuzkuh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Firuzkuh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Firuzkuh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firuzkuh, Iran
چکیده [English]

Several factors such as productivity, per capita income, and oil income effective on the real exchange rate. In addition to examining the factors mentioned above, this article examines the change in taste of Iranian consumers from domestic to foreign goods and its effect on the real exchange rate. For this purpose, a theoretical model of consumer behavior, which is a utility function including domestic and foreign goods, has been presented and linked to the real exchange rate. Then, using time series regression with the implicit trend and state space technique, the effect of taste on the real exchange rate has been estimated dynamically during the years 1974 to 2021. The result of the estimation shows that the effect of taste has dynamically reduced the real exchange rate so that the width from the regression's origin has decreased yearly. Also, the effect of productivity and per capita income on the real exchange rate is significant, but the effect of oil income is not significant. The practical results show during the last 47 years, the tastes of the Iranian people have tended to consume foreign commercial goods with a mild trend, and this has been one of the causes of the real value of the national currency.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Real Exchange Rate
  • Consumer Taste
  • State Space Method
  • Underlying Trend
Aghamiri, M., Damankishideh, M., & Hadinjad, M. (2021). Investigating the Factors Affecting the             Exchange Rate in Iran from the Perspective of Keynesians. Financial Economics, 1(54), 209 (In      Persian).
Armstrong, M., & Chen, Y. (2009). Inattentive consumers and product quality. Journal of the European                 Economic Association, 7(2-3), 411-422.
Asgharpour, H., Mehdilou, A., & Esmaili, S. M. (2014). Determinants of real effective exchange rate in   Iran using Fuzzy regression. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 1(3), 25-56 (In     Persian).
Athey, S., & Meidan, M. (2011). Exchange rate fluctuations, consumer demand, and advertising: The         case of internet search. Working paper.
Atkin, D. (2013). Trade, tastes, and nutrition in India. American economic review, 103(5), 1629-1663.
Auty, R., & Warhurst, A. (1993). Sustainable development in mineral exporting economies. Resources    Policy, 19(1), 14-29.
Aw, B. Y., Lee, Y., & Vandenbussche, H. (2019). The importance of consumer taste in trade.
Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of political       Economy, 72(6), 584-596.
Baumol, W. J. (1967). Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. The American                 economic review, 57(3), 415-426.
Baumol, W. J. (2012). The cost disease: Why computers get cheaper and health care doesn't. Yale                university press.
Benigno, G., & Thoenissen, C. (2008). Consumption and real exchange rates with incomplete markets and       non-traded goods. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(6), 926-948.
Berka, M., Devereux, M. B., & Engel, C. (2018). Real exchange rates and sectoral productivity in the       Eurozone. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1543-1581.
Berka, M., & Steenkamp, D. (2018). Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and    their structural determinants (No. DP2018/08). Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Bruno, M., & Sachs, J. (1982). Energy and resource allocation: a dynamic model of the “Dutch Disease”. The Review of Economic Studies, 49(5), 845-859.
Chávez, C. C. (2020). The Impact of Macroeconomics Factors on Real Exchange Rate in Latin America. Latin American Journal of Trade Policy, 3(8), 6-31.
Choudhri, E. U., & Khan, M. S. (2005). Real exchange rates in developing countries: are Balassa-             Samuelson effects present?. IMF Staff Papers, 52(3), 387-409.
Corden, W. M. (1984). Booming sector and Dutch disease economics: survey and consolidation. oxford                 economic Papers, 36(3), 359-380.
Corden, W. M., & Neary, J. P. (1982). Booming sector and de-industrialisation in a small open   economy. The economic journal, 92(368), 825-848.
Coşar, A. K., Grieco, P. L., Li, S., & Tintelnot, F. (2018). What drives home market advantage?. Journal   of international economics, 110, 135-150.
Couharde, C., Delatte, A. L., Grekou, C., Mignon, V., & Morvillier, F. (2020). Measuring the Balassa-       Samuelson effect: A guidance note on the RPROD database. International Economics, 161, 237-       247.
Crozet, M., Head, K., & Mayer, T. (2012). Quality sorting and trade: Firm-level evidence for French        wine. The Review of Economic Studies, 79(2), 609-644.
Dadgar, Y., & Orooji, Z. (2020). Dutch disease, rentier state, and resource curse: A characteristic triangle          and ultra challenge in the Iranian economy. Iranian Economic Review, 24(1), 129-157.
Damiri, M. H., Saeidi, P., Didehkhani, H., & Abbasi, I. (2020). The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables    on the Exchange Rate by the System Dynamics Approach. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 15(29), 349-384. (In Persian).
De Medeiros Costa, H. K., & dos Santos, E. M. (2013). Institutional analysis and the “resource curse” in                 developing countries. Energy Policy, 63, 788-795.
Dimitropoulos, J., Hunt, L. C., & Judge, G. (2005). Estimating underlying energy demand trends using UK annual data. Applied Economics Letters, 12(4), 239-244.
Monsef, A., Abolhasani, A., & Samadi, S. (2022). Investigating the Factors Affecting Iran's Real Exchange Rate according to Selected Indicators of Sixth Development Plan Using the Vector                 Error Correction Model. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 9(36), 49-85 (In           Persian).
Fischer, C. (2004). Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment                 demand. Review of World Economics, 140, 179-210.
Gao, X. M., Wailes, E. J., & Cramer, G. L. (1997). A microeconometric analysis of consumer taste                 determination and taste change for beef. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79(2), 573-                582.Gelb, A. H. (1988). Oil windfalls: Blessing or curse? Oxford university press.
Ghavidel, S., & Narenji Sheshkalany, A. (2017). Cost disease in service sector. The Service Industries      Journal, 37(3-4), 206-228.
Ghavidel, S., Fathabadi, M., & Radfar, H. (2016). Balassa–Samuelson effect in Iran. Monetary & Financial                 Economics, 23(11), 1-25 (In Persian).
Ghavidel, S., & Azizi, K. (2008). Determination of the effective factors on employment share in service                 sector and its susections (case study about Iran) (In Persian).
Görmüş, Ş., & Güneş, S. (2010). Consumer confidence, stock prices and exchange rates: The case of Turkey.Applied Econometrics and International Development, 10(2), 103-114.
Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter.
Harvey, A. C., & Koopman, S. J. (1992). Diagnostic checking of unobserved-components time series      models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(4), 377-389.
Hassan, F. (2016). The price of development: The Penn–Balassa–Samuelson effect revisited. Journal of                 International Economics, 102, 291-309.
Imai, H. (2010). Japan's inflation under the Bretton Woods system: How large was the Balassa–               Samuelson effect?. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(2), 174-185.
Imai, H. (2018). China’s rapid growth and real exchange rate appreciation: Measuring the Balassa-        Samuelson effect. Journal of Asian Economics, 54, 39-52.
Jahani, R. P., Mortazavi, A., & Mujahidi, M. M. (2007). Investigating the effects of oil revenues on Iran's                 economy (as a case similar to the Dutch disease). Economic Research and Policy Quarterly,                 14(39), 104-135 (In Persian).
Kravis, I. B., & Lipsey, R. E. (1983). Toward an explanation of national price levels.
Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. J. (2015). Globalization: Compiled Form International                Economics: Theory and Policy, Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J. Melitz. Pearson.
Krugman, P. (1987). The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of             Mrs. Thatcher: Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies. Journal of         development Economics, 27(1-2), 41-55.
Manafi, A. V., Khodadad, K. F., Biabani, J., & Pasban, F. (2015). The Influence of Real Exchange Rate        Fluctuations on the competition indices in Iran’s Economy (1979-2013). Financial     Economics, 9(32), 1-24 (In Persian).
Mariano, C., Sablan, V., Sardon, J. R., & Mae, R. (2015). Investigation of the factors affecting real              exchange rate in the Philippines. Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 5(4),     171-202.
Mihaljek, D., & Klau, M. (2008). Catching-up and inflation in transition economies: the Balassa-              Samuelson effect revisited.
Mińska-Struzik, E. (2012). Konkurencyjność polskiego eksportu produktów wysokiej techniki. Prace     Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, (267 Vol 2), 95-105.
Mithas, S., Hofacker, C. F., Bilgihan, A., Dogru, T., Bogicevic, V., & Sharma, A. (2020). Information           technology and Baumol's cost disease in healthcare services: a research agenda. Journal of Service              Management, 31(5), 911-937.
Mousavi, M. H., & Ghavidel, S. (2019). Structural time series model for energy demand in Iran's                 transportation sector. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 7(2), 423-432.
Najarzadeh, R., Agheli, L., & Shaghaghi, S. V. (2009). The effect of the exchange rate and the real            exchange rate on the deficit of the foreign trade in Iran's economy. Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 9(2), 73-102 (In Persian).
Parveen, S., Khan, A. Q., & Ismail, M. (2012). Analysis of the factors affecting exchange rate variability in Pakistan. Academic Research International, 2(3), 670.
Price, J. J., & Gómez-Lobo, A. (2021). Baumol’s cost disease and urban transport services in Latin           America. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 149, 206-225.
Sabbagh, K. M., & Shaghaghi, S. V. (2005). The Effective Factors on Real Exchange Rate in Iran (Using Vector, Auto-Regressive Model) (In Persian).
Sakhi, F., Hosseini, S. S., Salami, H., & Yazdani, S. (2023). The Factors Affecting the Real Exchange         Rate in Iran's Economy. Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(4), 107-141 (In Persian).
Sala-i-Martin, X., & Subramanian, A. (2013). Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from                 Nigeria. Journal of African Economies, 22(4), 570-615.
Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The review of economics and statistics,   145-154.
Sanusi, J. S. B. A. R., & Yusuf, I. M. (2021).  Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and             Consumption in Nigeria: A Nonlinear Approach.
Sasaki, H. (2007). The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity      growth. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 18(4), 438-459.
Spraos, J. (1955). Consumers' Behaviour and the Conditions for Exchange Stability. Economica, 22(86),                137-147.
Taghavi, M., & Nemati, Z. S. (2004). The effects of macroeconomic variables on the non-oil exports     in the economy of Iran (In Persian).
Ploeg, F. V. D. (2011). Natural resources: curse or blessing?. Journal of Economic literature, 49(2), 366- 420.
Van Der Ploeg, F., & Poelhekke, S. (2019). The impact of natural resources: survey of recent quantitative                 evidence. In Why Does Development Fail in Resource Rich Economies (pp. 31-42). Routledge.
Vidyavathi, B., Keerti, K., & Pooja, A. (2016). A Study on macro economic indicators and their impact on                 exchange rates. International Journal of Engineering and Management Studies, 7(3), 160-169.
Wang, W., Xue, J., & Du, C. (2016). The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis in the developed and developing                 countries revisited. Economics Letters, 146, 33-38.
Weber, J. G. (2014). A decade of natural gas development: The makings of a resource curse?. Resource                and Energy Economics, 37, 168-183