تعیین سناریوی بهینه کاهش آثار حذف ارز ترجیحی بر رفاه و درآمد عوامل تولید؛ رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی RDCGE

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسنده

استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

بر اساس داده‌های شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده مرکز آمار ایران، پس از اجرای سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی از کالاهای اساسی (مردمی‌سازی یارانه‌ها)، میانگین تورم نقطه‌به‌نقطه (نسبت به ماه مشابه سال قبل) گروه‌های عمده غذایی از خرداد 1401 تا آبان 1402، 1/86 درصد افزایش یافته است. حال، سؤال اساسی این است که در چه‌صورت اجرای سیاست مذکور، منجر به کاهش اثرات منفی بر درآمد عوامل تولید و رفاه خواهد شد؟ براین اساس، در پژوهش حاضر اثر 18 سناریو، در قالب نوع حذف ارز ترجیحی از کالاهای اساسی (یکباره، طی سه و طی پنج سال)، نوع جبران حمایتی (نقدی یا کالایی) و سطح پوشش حمایتی (تمامی دهک‌ها، دهک‌های پائین و متوسط یا تنها دهک‌های پائین درآمدی)، بر رفاه و درآمد عوامل تولید شبیه‌سازی شد. همچنین، داده‌های مورد نیاز از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی و جدول داده- ستانده بانک مرکزی گردآوری و جهت تجزیه‌وتحلیل آن‌ها از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE)  استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بهترین سناریو، سناریوی حذف ارز ترجیحی طی دوره پنج ساله، جبران حمایتی نقدی و پوشش حمایتی از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی می‌باشد. بدین مفهوم که اگر دولت حذف ارز ترجیحی را به‌تدریج طی دوره پنج ساله انجام داده و بصورت نقدی از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی حمایت کند، اثرات منفی شوک آن بر درآمد عوامل تولید و رفاه خنثی شده و سپس مثبت می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining Optimal Scenario to Reduce the Effects of Removing Discounted Currency on Welfare and Income of Production Factors; RDCGE General Equilibrium Model Approach

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard
Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

According to the data of the consumer price index of the Iran Statistics Center, after implementing the policy of removing discounted currency from basic goods (popularization of subsidies), the average point-to-point inflation (compared to the same month of the previous year) of the major food group has increased by 86.1 percent from May 2022 to November 2023. Now, the main question is, how will implementing the mentioned policy reduce the negative effects on the income of production and welfare factors? Therefore, in the current research, the results of the simulation of 18 scenarios were examined in the form of the type of removal of preferred currency from essential goods, the type of protective compensation, and the level of protective coverage of income deciles on the welfare and income of production factors. For this purpose, the research data was collected from the social accounting matrix and input-output table of the Central Bank of Iran. A recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (RDCGE) was also used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the examined scenarios, the best scenario is removing the preferred currency within five years, as well as cash compensation and protection coverage for the low- and middle-income deciles. In this sense, if the government removes the preferred currency gradually over five years and supports the low- and middle-income deciles in cash, the negative effects caused by the shock on the income of the factors of production and welfare will be neutralized and then become positive.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Total welfare
  • income of production factors
  • removing of discounted currency
  • income deciles
  • recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model
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