طراحی الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی به منظور بررسی تاثیر سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از کانال وام‌دهی بانک

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد اسلامی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم

2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران

3 دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

سیاستگذاران پولی برای تصمیم گیری در خصوص سیاست‌های پولی، باید ارزیابی دقیقی از مدت زمان و میزان اثر سیاست‌ها بر اقتصاد داشته باشند. این ارزیابی دقیق سیاست‌ها، نیازمند درک سازوکارهایی است که منطبق بر آن، سیاست پولی بر بخش‌های واقعی اقتصاد تاثیر می‌گذارد. بر اساس مطالعات صورت گرفته، این توافق وجود دارد که پول در بلند‌مدت خنثی است و تاثیری بر بخش حقیقی اقتصاد ندارد، اما در مورد اثر سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای واقعی در کوتاه‌‌‌مدت، اتفاق نظر وجود ندارد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی تاثیر سیاست پولی از کانال وام‌دهی بانک بر متغیرهای کلان در اقتصاد ایران است. در راستای تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج از روش تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی با لحاظ ساختار سیستم بانکی در بازه زمانی 1368-1401 بر اساس فراوانی داده‌های فصلی استفاده گردید. در بخش تحلیل آماری اثر تکانه وارد شده از ناحیه شاخص سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای بانکی و اقتصاد کلان مورد مقایسه و ارزیابی قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده می‌توان بیان کرد که اکثر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بیشترین واکنش مثبت به شوک وارد شده از ناحیه وام بانکی به عنوان کانال اثر گذاری سیاست پولی از خود نشان داده‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model to Investigate the Effect of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables from the Bank Lending Channel

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yazdan Gudarzi Farahani 1
  • Mohsen Mehrara 2
  • Mansour Haghtalab 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Qom University
2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
3 دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران
چکیده [English]

To make decisions about monetary policies, monetary policymakers must accurately assess the duration and extent of the policy's effect on the economy. This accurate evaluation of policies requires understanding the mechanisms according to which monetary policy affects the real sectors of the economy. Based on the studies, there is an agreement that money is neutral in the long term and has no effect on the real sector of the economy, but there is no consensus on the effect of monetary policy on real variables in the short term. Therefore, the short-term relationship between nominal and real variables is crucial for implementing monetary policy and needs further investigation. This study aims to investigate the impact of monetary policy through bank facilities on macro variables in Iran's economy. To analyze the results, the random dynamic general equilibrium method was used in terms of the banking system’s structure in the period of 1989-2022 based on the frequency of seasonal data. The advantage of the present study is in the modeling of the balance sheet of the banking system and its relationship with the balance sheet of the central bank and the modeling of the effect of monetary policy from the path of bank facilities on the variables of the real and nominal sectors of the economy. The statistical analysis section compared and evaluated the impact of the monetary policy index on banking and macroeconomic variables. Based on the results obtained, it can be stated that macroeconomic variables, including production, inflation, consumption, and investment, have shown a positive reaction to the impulse from banking facilities as a way to influence monetary policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • bank balance sheet
  • loan
  • monetary policy
  • banking system
  • dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 18، شماره 38
دی 1402
صفحه 57-80

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 19 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 دی 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 دی 1402

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