بررسی تأثیر شکاف تکنولوژی در کشورهای اوراسیا بر رشد بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران (رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه منطقه‌ای)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده‌ی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،کرمان، ایران.

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده‌ی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

بر اساس نظریه شکاف تکنولوژیک، شکاف تکنولوژیک بین کشورها می‌تواند بر رشد اقتصادی و تجارت آن‌ها اثرگذار باشد. از این‌رو، در این مطالعه به بررسی سناریوهای کاهش شکاف دیجیتال (1%، 2% و 5%) در کشورهای اوراسیا بر رشد بخش‌های اقتصادی ایران (کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات) با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE) پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، از سهم هزینه‌های تحقیق-وتوسعه از تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP) به عنوان شاخص شکاف دیجیتال استفاده شد. علاوه براین، جهت گردآوری داده‌های مورد نیاز از نسخه 10 پایگاه اطلاعاتی GTAP که شامل ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی (SAM) 141 کشور یا همان منطقه و 65 بخش می‌باشد، استفاده شد. داده‌ها در قالب سه بخش شامل: 1- کشاورزی، 2- صنعت و 3- خدمات و پنج عامل تولیدی شامل: نیروی کار ماهر، نیروی کار غیرماهر، منابع طبیعی، زمین و سرمایه و هفت منطقه شامل: ایران، کشورهای عضو اتحادیه اوراسیا (روسیه، بلاروس، قزاقستان، قرقیزستان و ارمنستان) و نیز سایر کشورها تجمیع شد. در نهایت، تجزیه‏وتحلیل داده‏ها با بهره‏گیری از نرم‏افزار MathLab صورت گرفت. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که در میان بخش‌های اقتصادی مورد بررسی، با کاهش شکاف دیجیتال GDP در کشورهای اوراسیا، به‌ترتیب، رشد اقتصادی بخش‌های خدمات، صنعت و معدن و کشاورزی در ایران افزایش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of the Technology Gap in Eurasian Countries on the Growth of Iran's Economic Sectors (Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrin karami 1
  • Seyed Abd-Al-Majid Jalaee 2
  • Mohsen Zayanderoody 3
1 PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
2 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده [English]

According to the technological divide theory, when an innovation company in a country produces a new product, the considered country has a temporary monopoly position in the production of that product, and by exporting to other countries, the relative advantage of producing goods will transfer from origin country to the country of destination. Therefore, the technological gap between countries can affect their economic growth and trade. Hence, in this study, the scenarios of reducing the digital divide (1%, 2%, and 5%) of Eurasian countries on the growth of Iran's economic sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) was studied using the regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. For this purpose, the share of research and development expenses to GDP was used as an index of the digital divide. In addition, to collect the required data, version 10 of the GTAP database, which includes the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 141 countries or regions and 65 sectors, was used. Data were collected in the form of three sections, including agriculture, industry, and services, and five production factors, including skilled labor, unskilled labor, natural resources, land, and capital, and seven regions, including Iran, members of Eurasian Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia), and other countries. Finally, data analysis was done using MathLab software. Results show that with the decrease in the digital divide of Eurasian countries, the economic growth of Iran's industry and mining, agriculture, and service sectors will increase. In addition, among the examined economic sectors, with the reduction in the digital divide of Eurasian countries, the economic growth of services, industry, mining, and agriculture sectors in Iran will increase, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • echnology gap
  • economic growth
  • Eurasian countries
  • ژomputable general equilibrium (CGE) model
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 18، شماره 38
دی 1402
صفحه 81-102

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 28 آبان 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 18 دی 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 18 دی 1402

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