تحلیل اثر تعمیق مالی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی نیم قرن اخیر

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد انرژی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

4 کارشناسی ارشد توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر نخست رفاه اقتصادی با استفاده از شاخص ترکیبی رفاه اقتصادی مبتنی بر چهار مؤلفه‌ی جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، امنیت و توزیع درآمد محاسبه و برآورد شد. سپس با استفاده از رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در قالب سه الگو، اثر تعمیق مالی بر رفاه اقتصادی در دوره زمانی 135۰ تا 140۱ مورد بررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. در این راستا در باب تعمیق مالی از سه شاخص در مطالعه حاضر استفاده و الگوی پژوهش بر اساس شاخص‌ مجزایی تصریح و برآورد گردید. محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی رفاه بیانگر آن است که شاخص رفاه از برنامه‌ی اول تا برنامه پنجم روند افزایشی داشته است. به‌نحوی‌که از رقم ۹/۲۰ در برنامه اول به رقم ۳/۶۰ در برنامه‌ی پنجم رسیده است. همچنین پس از برنامه‌ی سوم سطح رفاه بیشتر از میانگین کل دوره بوده است. روند حرکتی شاخص‌های تعمیق مالی نیز حاکی از وجود روندی تقریباً افزایشی است. نتایج برآورد الگو در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد هر سه شاخص تعمیق مالی با اثری مثبت بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است؛ همچنین رشد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه اثری مثبت و تورم اثری منفی بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد. یافته‌ی دیگر آن‌که در دوران قبل انقلاب تا پایان جنگ (۱۳۵۵ تا ۱۳۶۸) و پسا ...

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Effect of Financial Deepening on Economic Well-Being in Iran during the last half century

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahryar Zaroki 1
  • Ahmadreza Ahmadi 2
  • Fatemeh Mollatabar FIroozjaei 3
  • Mohammad Reza zare Chamazakhti 4
1 Associate Professor in Energy Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babilsar, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 M.Sc. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4 Master of Science in Economics Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the present study, economic well-being was first calculated and estimated using the combined index of economic well-being based on four components of consumption flow, wealth accumulation, security and income distribution. Then, using the approach autoregressive distributed lag in the form of three models, the effect of financial deepening on economic well-being in the period of 1971 to 2022 was investigated and tested. In this regard, regarding financial deepening, three indicators were used in the present study and the research model was specified and estimated based on a separate indicator. The calculation of economic well-being index shows that the well-being index has been increasing from the first plan to the fifth plan. In such a way that it has reached from 20.9 in the first program to 60.3 in the fifth program. Also, after the third program, the welfare level was higher than the average of the entire period. The movement trend of financial deepening indicators also indicates an almost increasing trend. The long-run model estimation results show that all three indicators of financial deepening have a positive effect on economic well-being; Also, economic growth and income per capita have a positive effect and inflation has a negative effect on economic well-being. Another finding is that during the period before the revolution until the end of the war (1976 to 1989) and after the JCPOA, the level of economic well-being of Iran has significantly decreased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Well-being
  • Financial Deepening
  • ARDL
  • Iran
Aboutorabi, M. A., Fenudi, H., & Mojtahedi, S. (2014). Islamic contracts, financial deepening and economic growth. The Journal Economic Policy, 6(12), 83-114. DOI:20.1001.1.26453967.1393.6.12.4.6 . [In Persian]
Acheampong, K. (2019). The interaction effect of foreign capital inflows and financial development on economic welfare in sub-Saharan Africa. Financial Innovation, 5(1), 1-33.
Adrian, T., & Mancini-Griffoli, T. (2021). The rise of digital money. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 13, 57-77.
Andayesh, Y., Mansouri, S.A., & Mohammad Hoseini, A. (2022). Investigating the Effect of the Result of Trade Exchange Relationship on Economic Welfare in Iran. Commercial Surveys, 20(115), 1-26. doi: 10.22034/bs.2022.254026 [In Persian]
Araç, A., & Kutalmış Özcan, S. (2014). The Causality between financial development and economic growth: The case of Turkey. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 35(3), 1-28.
Ayofe, B.L. (2022). Analysis of financial deepening and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review (Kuwait Chapter), 11(1), 25-35.
Bakhtiari, S., & Samad Poor, N. (2011). Estimating the welfare cost of inflation in the Iranian economy. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies0(19), 3-16. doi: 10.22096/esp.2011.26184. [In Persian]
Banerjee, A.V., & Newman, A.F. (1993). Occupational choice and the process of development. Journal of political Economy, 101(2), 274-298.
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28(3), 423-442.
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2007). Finance, inequality and the poor. Journal of Economic Growth12, 27-49.
Bruhn, M., & Love, I. (2014). The real impact of improved access to finance: Evidence from Mexico. The Journal of Finance, 69(3), 1347-1376.
Chakrabarty, M., & Mukherjee, S. (2021). Correction to financial inclusion and household welfare: An entropy-based consumption diversification approach. The European Journal of Development Research34(3), 1686-1687.
Chen, W., Hamori, S., & Kinkyo, T. (2016). Financial development and financial openness nexus: the precondition of banking competition. Applied Economics, 48(12), 1130-1139.‏
Clark, A.E., Frijters, P., & Shields, M.A. (2006). Relative income, happiness, and utility: An explanation for the Easterlin paradox and other puzzles. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(1), 95-144.
Cole, D.C. (1974). Financial deepening in economic development: JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978421.
Ehrbeck, T., Pickens, M., & Tarazi, M. (2010). Financially Inclusive Ecosystems: The roles of government today (No. 68069, pp. 1-12). The World Bank.‏.
Eswaran, M., & Kotwal, A. (1990). Implications of credit constraints for risk behaviour in less developed economies. Oxford Economic Papers, 42(2), 473-482.
Eswaran, M., & Kotwal, A. (1990). Implications of credit constraints for risk behaviour in less developed economies. Oxford economic papers, 42(2), 473-482.
Falihi, N., & Bukharai, R. (2018). Investigating the effect of financial depth on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Financial Economics, 11(38), 77-98. [In Persian]
Ghasemi, A., & Nazari, S. (2017). Examining the role of financial deepening on macroeconomic turbulence. Journal of Financial Economics, 10(35), 27-44. [In Persian]
Gloede, O., & Rungruxsirivorn, O. (2014). Local financial development and household welfare: Micro evidence from Thai households. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 49(4), 22-45. DOI:10.2753/REE1540-496X490402.
Goswami, M.M., & Sharma, M.S. (2011). The development of local debt markets in Asia. International Monetary Fund.
Greve, B. (2008). What is welfare?. Central European Journal of Public Policy, 2(01), 50-73.
Grossman, G.M., & Helpman, E. (1993). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT press.
Iheonu, C.O., Asongu, S.A., Odo, K.O., & Ojiem, P.K. (2020). Financial sector development and Investment in selected countries of the Economic Community of West African States: empirical evidence using heterogeneous panel data method. Financial Innovation, 6(1), 1-15.
Inoue, T., & Hamori, S. (2012). How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? Empirical analysis using state-level panel data. Applied Financial Economics, 22(5), 395-408. DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2011.613764.
Inoue, T., Kinkyo, T., & Hamori, S. (2016). Revisiting the roles of financial access and deepening for growth and reducing inequality. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(3), 722-723. DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1116266
Iyoboyi, M. (2013). Bank and non‐bank financial deepening and economic growth: The Nigerian experience (1981–2010).  Economic Notes by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 42(3), 247-271.
Jacoby, H.G. (1994). Borrowing constraints and progress through school: Evidence from Peru. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 151-160.
Jacoby, H.G., & Skoufias, E. (1997). Risk, financial markets, and human capital in a developing country. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(3), 311-335.
Jafari Samimi, A., Zaroki, S., & Sadati Amiri, S. R. (2019). Economic welfare analysis with an emphasis on aspects of globalization. Economical Modeling, 12(44), 1-23. [In Persian]
Jauch, S., & Watzka, S. (2016). Financial development and income inequality: A panel data approach. Empirical Economics51, 291-314.
Johnston Jr, D., & Morduch, J. (2008). The unbanked: evidence from Indonesia. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(3), 517-537.
Karimi, S. (2023). Amartyasen, an economist with all human ideas. Vista news, Khandan, M. (2012). The effect of inflation on the economic well-being of the country. Master's thesis of Yazd Azad University. [In Persian]
Komatsu, S., & Suzuki, A. (2023). The impact of different levels of income inequality on subjective well-being in China: A panel data analysis. The Chinese Economy, 56(2), 104-123.
Komijani, A., & Nadali, M. (2006). Examining the causal relationship between financial deepening and economic growth in Iran. Business Research, No. 44, 23-47. [In Persian]
Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726.
Levine, R. (2008). Finance and the Poor. The Manchester School76, 1-13.
Li, X., Ozturk, I., Majeed, M. T., Hafeez, M., & Ullah, S. (2022). Considering the asymmetric effect of financial deepening on environmental quality in BRICS economies: Policy options for the green economy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 331, 129909.
LU, C., & Dilancheiv, A. (2023). The nexus of financial deepening and poverty: the case of black sea region economics. The Sigapour Economic Review, 68(4), 1183-1205.  DOI:10.1142/S0217590822440064.
Mallick, D., & Zhang, Q. (2019). The effect of financial inclusion on household welfare in China. MPRA Paper 95786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Mehnatfar, Y. (2014). Investigating the relationship between Financial Depth in Capital Market and Economic Growth, Journal of Securities Exchange, 6(24), 41-61. magiran.com/p1315243. [In Persian]
Mehri Telyabi, F., Fotros, M. H., Mowlaei, M., & Hosseinidoust, S. E. (2022). Effect of Foreign R&D on Social Welfare Index in Sanctioned Countries. Economic Growth and Development Research12(46), 66-47. doi: 10.30473/egdr.2021.57270.6118. [In Persian]
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets (The Pearson Series in Economics).
Mousavi, M. H., & Nematpour, M. (2010). The effect of financial liberalization on the stock market in Iran. Economic Modeling, 5(16), 21-39. [In Persian]
 NaserBafghi, M., & DehghanTafti, M. (2015). Comparative comparison of the effect of inflation on the economic well-being of some OPEC member countries. Conference on Management and Humanities Researches in Iran, Tehran, Director Management Research Institute, University of Tehran. [In Persian]
Ochieng, D. E., & Obuya, M. E. (2020). Financial deepening, financial efficiency, interest rate deregulation and poverty levels: A critical literature review. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 25, 643-665.
Ofori-Abebrese, G., Baidoo, S. T., & Essiam, E. (2020). Estimating the effects of financial inclusion on welfare in sub-Saharan Africa. Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), 1-15. DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2020.1839164
Ogbuagu, A. R., Ewubare, D. B., & Harcourt, P. (2014). Financial deepening and inflation in Nigeria: An open economy model approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(25), 39-50.
Oniore, J. O. (2014). Impact of financial deepening and foreign direct investment effectiveness on economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management2(10), 1-16.
Osberg, L., & Sharpe, A. (2009). New estimates of the index of economic well-being for selected OECD countries, 1980-2007. Ottawa: Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
Panić, M. (2007). Does Europe need neoliberal reforms?. Cambridge Journal of Economics31(1), 145-169.
Pigou, A. (2017). The economics of welfare. Routledge.
Rabbani, R., Arunachalm, D., Abbaszadeh, M., & Ghasemi, V. (2008). The effect of economic and social welfare on the degree of the participation of citizens in urban affairs (Case: City of Isfahan). Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Journal of Social Sciences02(0), -. doi: 10.22067/jss.v0i0.8726. [In Persian]
Radcliffe, D., & Voorhies, R. (2012). A digital pathway to financial inclusion. Available at SSRN 2186926.
Raei, R., Eyvazloo, R., & Khosravi, A.R. (2013). Financial institutions. Tehran University Publications. [In Persian]
Rajan, R., & Zingales, L. (1998). Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review, 88(3), 559-86.
Rensburg, S.J., Rossouw, R., & Viviers, W. (2020). Liberalizing Bangladesh’s service trade: Is Joining trade in services agreement the way to go?, South Asia Economic Journal, 139156142090319.
Romer, P.M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political Economy98(5, Part 2), S71-S102.
Salmanpour, A. (2014). Investigating the impact of financial deepening on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Quantitative Studies in Management, 5(2), 159-197. [In Persian]
Samad Poor, N. (2011). Estimating the welfare cost of inflation in the Iranian economy. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies0(19), 3-16. doi: 10.22096/esp.2011.26184. [In Persian]
Schumpeter, J.A., & Swedberg, R. (2021). The theory of economic development. Routledge.
Serafim, J. (2021). Financial deepening, stock market, inequality and poverty: Some African evidence. REM Working Paper, 1(77), 1-31.
Shahiki Tash, M.N., Molaee, S., & Dinarzehi, K. (2014). Examining the relationship between economic growth and coefficient of social welfare under the Bayesian approach in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research4(16), 52-41. [In Persian]
Sharpe, A., & Andrews, B. (2012). An assessment of weighting methodologies for composite indicators: The case of the index of economic well-being. CSLS.
Tashkini, A.( 2005). Applied econometrics with the help of Microfit. DIBAGRAN Cultural and Artisitic Institute of Tehran. [In Persian]
Tchamyou, V.S., & Asongu, S.A. (2017). Information sharing and financial sector development in Africa. Journal of African Business, 18(1), 24-49.
Townsend, R.M. (1995). Consumption insurance: An evaluation of risk-bearing systems in low-income economies. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(3), 83-102.
Thiry, G. (2015). Beyond GDP: Conceptual grounds of quantification. The case of the index of economic well-being (IEWB). Social Indicators Research121, 313-343.
Van Praag, B.M.S. (1989). The relativity of the welfare concept. WIDER Working Papers (1986-2000) 1989/069. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER.
Visco, I. (2007). Financial deepening and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Exchange PSL Quarterly Review, 1-23.
Yazdani F. (2003). Basic concepts in social welfare issues (Social policy, social support, social security). REFAHIJ3(10), 31-54.
Zaroki, S., Ezoji, H., & Sadati Amiri, S. R. (2018). Analysis of the role of tourism on economic welfare using panel data. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 7(26), 96-121. doi: 10.22080/jtpd.2018.2043.[In Persian]
Zaroki, S., Yousefi Barfurushi, A., Yousefzadeh Roshan, Z., & Ahmadi, A. (2023). Analysis of the effect of oil rent on economic well-being in Iran with an emphasis on the underground economy. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 58(3), 395-431. doi: 10.22059/jte.2023.356519.1008801. [In Persian]
Zouhair, A., & Imen, M. (2012). Economic growth and income inequality: Empirical evidence from North African countries, Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2(1), 142-154.