برآورد ضریب فزاینده مالیات های مستقیم در اقتصاد ایران: کاربرد الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای متغیر در زمان

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد سلماس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سلماس، ایران

چکیده

مطالعات تجربی انجام ‌گرفته در حوزه برآورد ضریب فزاینده سیاست های سمت تقاضا نشان داده است که ضریب فزاینده سیاست مالی ثابت نبوده و در طول زمان متغیر است. از دیدگاه نظری نیز این ضریب تحت تأثیر عوامل متعددی است که با تغییر هر یک از این عوامل، ضریب مذکور تغییر می کند. مدل TVP-VAR قابلیت برآورد پاسخ یک متغیر در اثر شوک وارد شده از طرف متغیرهای دیگر را در طی زمان دارد. بر این اساس، در این مطالعه با استفاده از داده های فصلی دوره زمانی 1369 الی 1399 ایران و با به ‌کارگیری الگوی خود رگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای متغیر در زمان با رویکرد عامل افزوده، نخست؛ شاخص ترکیبی و پنهان ابزارهای سیاست پولی و توابع واکنش آنی متغیرها استخراج شد. سپس ضریب فزاینده رشد درآمدهای مالیات اشخاص حقیقی، حقوقی و بر ثروت به‌صورت زمان متغیر برآورد گردید. در مرحله سوم؛ با استفاده از تکنیک آنالیز واریانس، عوامل مؤثر بر ضریب فزاینده رشد درآمدهای مالیاتی مستقیم مشخص گردید. نتایج نشان داد که در بین سه ابزار سیاست مالیات های مستقیم، بزرگترین ضریب فزاینده مربوط به رشد درآمدهای مالیات بر اشخاص حقوقی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the direct tax multipliers in Iran's economy: The application of the Time-Varying Parameters Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Mohammadi dereshki 1
  • Tahereh Akhoondzadeh Yousefi 2
  • mahdi rostamzadeh 3
  • mohammad sokhanvar 2
1 PhD student, Department of Economics, Urmia Branch, Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Urmia Branch, Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Salmas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Salmas, Iran
چکیده [English]

The experimental studies done in the field of estimating the multiplier of demand side policies, have shown that the multiplier of fiscal policy has not been fixed, rather has been changing over time. From a theoretical perspective this coefficient is influenced by different factors such that with change of every factor the mentioned coefficient would change. TVP-VAR models have the ability to estimate the response of a variable due to the shock introduced by other variables over time. In this study, using quarterly data from the period 1990 to 2021 in Iran and employing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with the factor-augmented approach, first of all, the combined and latent index of monetary policy and impulse respons function was extracted. Then the multipliers of personal taxes, corporate taxes and property tax were calculated in the form of time-varying estimations. In the third stage, using the variance analysis technique, the factors effective on multiplier of direct tax policies were ascertained. The results indicated that from among 3 tools for direct tax policies, the greatest multiplier was related to corporate taxes. Furthermore, the imports to GDP and the savings to GDP ratios have the highest efficiency and explanatory power of multiplier fluctuations of personal taxes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • corporate tax
  • fiscal policy multiplier
  • personal tax
  • property tax

مراجع

References
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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 19، شماره 42
تیر 1403
صفحه 7-35

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 09 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 24 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 09 تیر 1403

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