تأثیر عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای بر شاخص‌های کلان بخش کشاورزی ایران (رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر منطقه‌ای)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسنده

استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این مطالعه به بررسی تأثیر عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای و کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری میان ایران و سازمان یاد شده (تحت سناریوهای 25%، 50% و 100%)، بر شاخص‌های بخش کشاورزی ایران (صادرات، اشتغال، تشکیل سرمایه و ارزش افزوده) با مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر منطقه‌ای مبتنی بر پروژه تحلیل تجارت جهانی (GTAP) پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، داده‌های لازم از نسخه10 پایگاه اطلاعاتیGTAP استخراج و تجزیه‏وتحلیل داده‏ها با بهره‏گیری از نرم‏افزار MATLAB صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که با کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری بین ایران و کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای، متغیرهای کلان بخش کشاورزی ایران از جمله: صادرات، تشکیل سرمایه، اشتغال و در نتیجه ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران افزایش می‌یابد. زیرا با عضویت در این سازمان و کاهش تعرفه‌های تجاری با کشورهای عضو آن، ایران از ظرفیت‌های جدیدی بهره‌مند می‌شود که می‌تواند باعث کاهش فشارهای ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی از سوی کشورهای غربی شود. همچنین، کاهش تعرفه صنایع سبک و سنگین میان ایران و کشورهای عضو سازمان یاد شده، بویژه کشورهای چین، هند و روسیه که جزء کشاورزی پیشرو در فناوری‌های کشاورزی هستند، باعث افزایش بهره‌وری بخش کشاورزی ایران و در نتیجه افزایش متغیرهای کلان این بخش از جمله را صادرات، تشکیل سرمایه، اشتغال و ارزش افزوده می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Iran's Membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Macro indicators of Iran's Agricultural Sector (Regional Computable General Equilibrium Approach)

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard
Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the effect of Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and the aforementioned organization (under 25%, 50% and 100% scenarios) on major indicators of Iran's agricultural sector (exports, employment, capital formation and added value) was discussed using regional computable general equilibrium model based on Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). For this purpose, required data was extracted from version10 of GTAP database and data analysis was done using MATLAB software. Results showed that, with Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and other member countries of this organization, the macro variables of Iran's agricultural sector, including: export, capital formation, employment, and as a result, the added value of Iran's agricultural sector increases. Because with Iran's membership in this organization and the reduction of trade tariffs with its member countries, Iran will benefit from new capacities and facilities that can reduce the pressures caused by economic sanctions from Western countries. Also, the reduction of light and heavy industry tariffs between Iran and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, especially China, India and Russia, which are among the leading countries in the field of agricultural knowledge and technologies, will increase the productivity of Iran's agricultural sector due to the ease of importing advanced machinery and technologies with lower cost and as a result lead to an increase in the macro variables of this sector, including exports, capital formation, employment and added value.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization
  • agricultural sector
  • reduction of trade tariffs
  • regional general equilibrium model
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