هدف‌گذاری تولید ناخالص داخلی اسمی تحت رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی نیوکینزی در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تهران، دانشکده اقتصاد

2 دکتری پیام نور تهران

3 دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، دانشکده اقتصاد

4 تبریز، ائل‌گلی، فلکه گلشهر، کوی البرز، بن بست صدف، پلاک 14/1، طبقه سوم

چکیده

پس از پایان دوره اعتدال بزرگ، مطالعاتی که برای رژیم غالب سیاست پولی فعلی (هدف‌گذاری تورم) جایگزین‌هایی را پیشنهاد می‌کنند، افزایش یافته است. یکی از این جایگزین‌ها، هدف‌گذاری تولید ناخالص داخلی اسمی است. پژوهش حاضر به طور تجربی موضوع هدف‌گذاری تولید ناخالص داخلی اسمی را در مقابل سایر سیاست‌های پولی هم‌چون هدف‌گذاری تورم (قوانین تیلور) در چارچوب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی نئوکینزی بررسی می‌کند. مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) کینزی جدید به کار برده شده در برآورد، از طریق ترکیبی از کالیبراسیون و تخمین بیزی پارامترها، با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی کشور ایران طی دوره 1370:1- 1398:4، برازش شده است. بنابراین در ابتدا یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) کینزی جدید با هزینه‌های تعدیل سرمایه‌گذاری، قیمت‌ها و چسبندگی دستمزدهای واقعی، بخش دولتی و رقابت ناقص، همراه با شوک‌های مختلف طراحی شد، و سپس با استفاده از روش‌ بیزین، این مدل‌ها را با استفاده از داده‌های کشور ایران برآورد و مقایسه شده است. نتایج نشان داد که در درجه نخست؛ تاثیر شوک‌های سیاست‌های پولی بر متغیرهای به کار رفته در مدل‌ها هم جهت بوده و بانک مرکزی ایران به افزایش تولید و نرخ تورم نسبت به مقادیر حالت ثابت آن‌ها واکنش تهاجمی کم‌تری نشان می‌دهد. دوم اینکه؛ شدت تاثیرپذیری متغیرهای تولید و نرخ تورم از شوک‌های پولی قانون هدف‌گذاری تولید ناخالص داخلی اسمی نسبت به قانون هدف‌گذاری تورم (قانون تیلور) بیش‌تر بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Nominal GDP Targeting under Application of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models in Iran.

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Mehrara 1
  • ali khajeh mohammad lou 2
  • Asghar Abolhassani Hastiani 3
  • Roya Bagheri 4
1 University of Tehran, Faculty of Economics
2 Ph.D. in Economics, Payam Nour University of Tehran
3 Tehran Payam Noor University, Faculty of Economics
4 No 14/1, Fl 3, Sadaf De. Alborz Qtr, Golshahr Sq, Elgholi Ave, Tabriz Ct
چکیده [English]

Since the end of the Great Moderation period, there has been an increase in studies proposing alternatives to the current dominant monetary policy regime (inflation targeting). One of these popular alternatives is nominal GDP targeting. The current research empirically investigates the issue of nominal GDP targeting against other monetary policies such as inflation targeting (Taylor's laws) within the framework of a neo-Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model. This model has been fitted through a combination of calibration and Bayesian estimation of parameters, using data from Iran during the seasonal period of 1370:1-1398:4. Therefore, at first, a new Keynesian (DSGE) model with investment adjustment costs, prices and real wage stickiness, public sector and imperfect competition, along with various shocks is designed and then with using Bayesian methods, we estimated and compared these models on the data of Iran. The results have shown that first; The impact of monetary policy shocks on the variables used in the models is in the same direction and the Central Bank of Iran reacts less aggressively to the increase in production and inflation rate than their steady state values. Secondly;The effectiveness of production variables and inflation rate from monetary shocks of nominal GDP targeting law is more than Taylor's law

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Targeting Nominal Gross Domestic Product
  • Taylor's Rule
  • Stochastic General Equilibrium Method (DSGE)
  • Monetary Policy-Maker Reaction Function
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