بررسی تأثیر شوک‌های ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر ارزش افزوده و سرمایه‌گذاری بخش معدن در ایران (رهیافت مدل RDCGE)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

بی-تردید، بررسی نحوه و مکانیسم اثرگذاری شوک‌های ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی بر بخش معدن کشور، می‌تواند مسئولان و برنامه‌ریزان اقتصادی کشور را در مواجهه و رویارویی بهتر و کاستن از پیامدهای منفی اقتصادی آن‌ها از جمله کاهش تولید و ارزش افزوده، کاهش اشتغال، کاهش سرمایه‌گذاری و ... در بخش معدن یاری رساند. لذا در این مطالعه برای نخستین بار به بررسی اثرات شوک‌های ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی (1. شوک افزایش نرخ ارز، 2. شوک کاهش واردات مواد اولیه، کالاهای سرمایه‌ای و واسطه‌ای، 3. شوک کاهش درآمد صادرات نفت خام و 4. شوک کاهش صادرات غیرنفتی) بر بخش معدن ایران پرداخته شد. برای این منظور داده‌های مورد نیاز از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی گردآوری شده و جهت تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از مدل تعادل محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در میان شوک‌های ناشی از تحریم‌های اقتصادی به‌ترتیب: شوک ناشی از افزایش نرخ ارز، شوک ناشی از کاهش واردات مواد اولیه، کالاهای سرمایه‌ای و واسطه‌ای، شوک ناشی از کاهش درآمد صادرات نفت خام و شوک ناشی از کاهش صادرات غیرنفتی از بیشترین تأثیر بر ارزش افزوده و سرمایه‌گذاری بخش معدن ایران برخوردار می‌باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Economic Sanctions Shocks on Added Value and Investment in Iran’s Mining Sector (RDCGE Model Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheil Pourhaji Hoseini 1
  • Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri 2
  • Mohammad Hosein Mahdavi Adeli 3
  • Narges SalehNia 2
1 PhD student in Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Undoubtedly, examining the manner and mechanism of impact of shocks caused by economic sanctions on the country's mining sector can help the officials and economic planners of the country to better face and reduce their negative economic consequences, including reduction in production and added value, reduction in employment, reduction in investment, etc., in the mining sector. Therefore, in this study, for the first time, the effects of shocks caused by economic sanctions (1. the shock of the increase in the exchange rate, 2. the shock of the decrease in the import of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods, 3. the shock of the decrease in crude oil export income and 4. The shock of non-oil export reduction) on Iran's mining sector. For this purpose, the required data was collected from the social accounting matrix and the Recursive Dynamic Computable Equilibrium (RDCGE) model was used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the shocks caused by economic sanctions, in order: the shock caused by the increase in the exchange rate, the shock caused by the decrease in the import of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods, the shock caused by the decrease in crude oil export income and the shock caused by the reduction of non-oil exports have the greatest impact on the added value and investment of Iran's mining sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mining sector
  • economic sanctions
  • added value
  • investment
  • recursive dynamic computable equilibrium (RDCGE) model

مراجع

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Arribas, I., Bensassi, S., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2020). Trade integration in the European Union: Openness, interconnectedness, and distance. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 101167. doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101167
Baghestani, A. A., Javedan, E., Heidari, R., Shabanzadeh, M., Shemshadi, K., & Fahimifard, S. M. (2022). Islamic Republic of Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (agricultural trade - food security). Agricultural planning, economics and rural development research institute (APERDRI) press, Tehran. (In Persian)
Corong, E. L., Hertel, T. W., McDougall, R., Tsigas, M. E., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2017). The Standard GTAP Model, Version 7. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2(1), 1–119. doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.020101AF
Elahi, N., Masoomzadeh, E., Kiaalhosseini, S., & Arabi, S. H. (2021). Investigating the Potential Impacts of the Trade Agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on the Export Sector of Agriculture and Industry; An Approach based on the Gravity Model. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(44), 120-105. doi.org/10.30473/egdr.2020.51845.5701 (In Persian)
Fahimifard, S. M., Rafaati, M., & Gilanpour, O. (2022). Investigating the Effects of Removing the Preferred Exchange Rate of Agricultural Inputs on Agriculture Sector of Iran: RDCGE Approach. Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(2), 201-235. doi.org/10.30490/AEAD.2022.355517.1368 (In Persian)

Iqbal, M. S., Anwar, S., Khan, M. A., & Sardar, A. (2018). Agriculture trade liberalization and potential sectoral and welfare gains for Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 55(2). doi.org/10.21162/PAKJAS/18.6476

IRICA. (2023). The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, https://www.irica.gov.ir/ (In Persian)
Jagdambe, S., & Kannan, E. (2020). Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach. World Development Perspectives, 19, 100212. doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100212
Kazemnezhad, M., Baghban Haghighi, S., Mehrparvar Hosseini, E., & Aminizadeh, M. (2024). Investigating and Analyzing the Efficiency of Iran’s Agricultural Export Target Markets in Member Countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Agricultural Economics and Development, 32(1), doi.org/10.30490/aead.2024.361665.1505. (In Persian)
Kiani deh kiani, M., Mousavi, S. H., & Khalilyan, S. (2018). The Effects of Tariff Elimination in Agricultural Sector on Job Creation among Economic Sectors. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 18(1), 33-53. dor: 20.1001.1.17356768.1397.18.1.2.9  (In Persian)
Kulbacki, M., & Michalczuk, A. (2021). Regional trade integration in Central and Eastern Europe: State of play after 15 years of EU membership. Journal of Economics and Management, 43(1), 225-250. doi.org/ 10.22367/jem.2021.43.11
Kumar, R. (2021). South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2891-2903. doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1941
Moradi Haghighi, F., Hosseini, M., & Nasirzad, M. (2023). Regional Integration of Iran and SCO in Comparison with EAEU. International Political Economy Studies, 6(1), 257-287. doi.org/ 10.22126/IPES.2023.8578.1531 (In Persian)
Naseri, A. K., Shahnoushi Forushani, N., Dourandish, A., Nematollahi, Z., & Kiani Feyzabad, Z. (2024). The Welfare Effects of Reducing the Import Tariff in Afghanistan’s Agriculture Sector: Application of the CGE Model. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, doi.org/ 10.22059/ijaedr.2024.370281.669282. (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Bahmani, M., Jalaee Esfandabadi, S. A., & Balaghi enalou, Y. (2022). The Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Industrial Sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union Using a Multi-Regional GTAP Approach. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 17(33), 7-34. doi.org/10.22080/IEJM.2023.21114.1831 (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Bahmani, M., Jalaee Esfandabadi, S. A., & Balaghi Inalo, Y. (2020). Analyzing the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalization using Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach: The Case of Iran and Eurasia Economic Union. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 11(1), 153-179. doi.org/ 10.29252/JEM.2020.100522 (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Balaghi Enalou, Y. (2022). Analysis of the Interests of Iran's Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 22(2), 89-118. dor: 20.1001.1.17356768.1401.22.2.6.3 (In Persian)
Nie, Q. (2023). Analysis of Economic Effects of the Establishment of the BRICS Free Trade Zone Based on the GTAP-E Model. Journal of Business and Social Science Review, 4(1), 16-27. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4355921
Nugroho, A. D., Ma’ruf, M. I., Nasir, M. A., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Lakner, Z. (2024). Impact of global trade agreements on agricultural producer prices in Asian countries. Heliyon, 10(2). doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24635
Omarbakiyev, L. A., Kantarbayeva, S. M., Nizamdinova, A. K., Zhumasheva, S. T., Seitkhamzina, G. Z., & Saulembekova, A. (2023). Consequences of changing regional integration on environmental development, agricultural markets, and food security. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 9(4), 951-966. doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2023.04.19
Paseban, F., Pourmoghim, S. J., & Afshari, Z. (2018). Interaction with World Economy and Impacts of Reductions in Tariff Rate on Iranian Agricultural sector Using Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE). Village and Development, 13(1), 83-109. doi.org/ 10.30490/RVT.2018.59211 (In Persian)
Sadigh Mohammadi, M., Sarlak, A., Najafizadeh, S. A., & Hassanzadeh, M. (2021). The Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Households Welfare in Iran: A CGE Approach. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(42), 108-81. doi.org/10.30473/egdr.2020.48417.5377 (In Persian)
Saeidi Javadi, H., & Fahimifard, S. M. (2023). Studying the Feasibility of Iran Economic Integration with BSEC Using Gravity Model. International Political Economy Studies, 6(1), 193-222. doi.org/ 10.22126/IPES.2022.7988.1485 (In Persian)
Sayadi, M., Mohammadi, T., & Shakeri, A. (2016). Fiscal policy framework for oil revenue management in Iran: stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 2(1), 33-76. doi.org/10.22054/joer.2016.5289 (In Persian)
Tsigas, & Marinos E. (2023). Unemployment Effects of Trade: Extending the GTAP Model. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4437618 
Valea, A. B., Tamini, L. D., & Rousselière, D. Agri-food trade liberalization, export prices, and quality upgrading: Evidence from the meat and chocolate sectors in OECD countries. Agribusiness. doi.org/ 10.1002/agr.21925
Zoghipour, A., & Zibaei, M. (2010). Effects of Trade Liberalization on Key Variables of Agricultural Sector in Iran: Computable General Equilibrium. Agricultural Economics, 3(4), 67-93. (In Persian)
Aghaei, D., & Ghahramani, M. J. (2023). The role and position of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Tehran University Press. (In Persian)
Arribas, I., Bensassi, S., & Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2020). Trade integration in the European Union: Openness, interconnectedness, and distance. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 52, 101167. doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101167
Baghestani, A. A., Javedan, E., Heidari, R., Shabanzadeh, M., Shemshadi, K., & Fahimifard, S. M. (2022). Islamic Republic of Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (agricultural trade - food security). Agricultural planning, economics and rural development research institute (APERDRI) press, Tehran. (In Persian)
Corong, E. L., Hertel, T. W., McDougall, R., Tsigas, M. E., & van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2017). The Standard GTAP Model, Version 7. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2(1), 1–119. doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.020101AF
Elahi, N., Masoomzadeh, E., Kiaalhosseini, S., & Arabi, S. H. (2021). Investigating the Potential Impacts of the Trade Agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on the Export Sector of Agriculture and Industry; An Approach based on the Gravity Model. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(44), 120-105. doi.org/10.30473/egdr.2020.51845.5701 (In Persian)
Fahimifard, S. M., Rafaati, M., & Gilanpour, O. (2022). Investigating the Effects of Removing the Preferred Exchange Rate of Agricultural Inputs on Agriculture Sector of Iran: RDCGE Approach. Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(2), 201-235. doi.org/10.30490/AEAD.2022.355517.1368 (In Persian)

Iqbal, M. S., Anwar, S., Khan, M. A., & Sardar, A. (2018). Agriculture trade liberalization and potential sectoral and welfare gains for Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 55(2). doi.org/10.21162/PAKJAS/18.6476

IRICA. (2023). The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, https://www.irica.gov.ir/ (In Persian)
Jagdambe, S., & Kannan, E. (2020). Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach. World Development Perspectives, 19, 100212. doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100212
Kazemnezhad, M., Baghban Haghighi, S., Mehrparvar Hosseini, E., & Aminizadeh, M. (2024). Investigating and Analyzing the Efficiency of Iran’s Agricultural Export Target Markets in Member Countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Agricultural Economics and Development, 32(1), doi.org/10.30490/aead.2024.361665.1505. (In Persian)
Kiani deh kiani, M., Mousavi, S. H., & Khalilyan, S. (2018). The Effects of Tariff Elimination in Agricultural Sector on Job Creation among Economic Sectors. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 18(1), 33-53. dor: 20.1001.1.17356768.1397.18.1.2.9  (In Persian)
Kulbacki, M., & Michalczuk, A. (2021). Regional trade integration in Central and Eastern Europe: State of play after 15 years of EU membership. Journal of Economics and Management, 43(1), 225-250. doi.org/ 10.22367/jem.2021.43.11
Kumar, R. (2021). South Asia: Multilateral trade agreements and untapped regional trade integration. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2891-2903. doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1941
Moradi Haghighi, F., Hosseini, M., & Nasirzad, M. (2023). Regional Integration of Iran and SCO in Comparison with EAEU. International Political Economy Studies, 6(1), 257-287. doi.org/ 10.22126/IPES.2023.8578.1531 (In Persian)
Naseri, A. K., Shahnoushi Forushani, N., Dourandish, A., Nematollahi, Z., & Kiani Feyzabad, Z. (2024). The Welfare Effects of Reducing the Import Tariff in Afghanistan’s Agriculture Sector: Application of the CGE Model. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, doi.org/ 10.22059/ijaedr.2024.370281.669282. (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Bahmani, M., Jalaee Esfandabadi, S. A., & Balaghi enalou, Y. (2022). The Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Industrial Sector of Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union Using a Multi-Regional GTAP Approach. Macroeconomics Research Letter, 17(33), 7-34. doi.org/10.22080/IEJM.2023.21114.1831 (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Bahmani, M., Jalaee Esfandabadi, S. A., & Balaghi Inalo, Y. (2020). Analyzing the Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalization using Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach: The Case of Iran and Eurasia Economic Union. Journal of Economics and Modelling, 11(1), 153-179. doi.org/ 10.29252/JEM.2020.100522 (In Persian)
Nejati, M., Balaghi Enalou, Y. (2022). Analysis of the Interests of Iran's Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 22(2), 89-118. dor: 20.1001.1.17356768.1401.22.2.6.3 (In Persian)
Nie, Q. (2023). Analysis of Economic Effects of the Establishment of the BRICS Free Trade Zone Based on the GTAP-E Model. Journal of Business and Social Science Review, 4(1), 16-27. doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4355921
Nugroho, A. D., Ma’ruf, M. I., Nasir, M. A., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Lakner, Z. (2024). Impact of global trade agreements on agricultural producer prices in Asian countries. Heliyon, 10(2). doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e24635
Omarbakiyev, L. A., Kantarbayeva, S. M., Nizamdinova, A. K., Zhumasheva, S. T., Seitkhamzina, G. Z., & Saulembekova, A. (2023). Consequences of changing regional integration on environmental development, agricultural markets, and food security. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 9(4), 951-966. doi.org/10.22034/gjesm.2023.04.19
Paseban, F., Pourmoghim, S. J., & Afshari, Z. (2018). Interaction with World Economy and Impacts of Reductions in Tariff Rate on Iranian Agricultural sector Using Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE). Village and Development, 13(1), 83-109. doi.org/ 10.30490/RVT.2018.59211 (In Persian)
Sadigh Mohammadi, M., Sarlak, A., Najafizadeh, S. A., & Hassanzadeh, M. (2021). The Effect of Exchange Rate Shocks on Households Welfare in Iran: A CGE Approach. Economic Growth and Development Research, 11(42), 108-81. doi.org/10.30473/egdr.2020.48417.5377 (In Persian)
Saeidi Javadi, H., & Fahimifard, S. M. (2023). Studying the Feasibility of Iran Economic Integration with BSEC Using Gravity Model. International Political Economy Studies, 6(1), 193-222. doi.org/ 10.22126/IPES.2022.7988.1485 (In Persian)
Sayadi, M., Mohammadi, T., & Shakeri, A. (2016). Fiscal policy framework for oil revenue management in Iran: stochastic dynamic general equilibrium approach. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research, 2(1), 33-76. doi.org/10.22054/joer.2016.5289 (In Persian)
Tsigas, & Marinos E. (2023). Unemployment Effects of Trade: Extending the GTAP Model. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4437618 
Valea, A. B., Tamini, L. D., & Rousselière, D. Agri-food trade liberalization, export prices, and quality upgrading: Evidence from the meat and chocolate sectors in OECD countries. Agribusiness. doi.org/ 10.1002/agr.21925
Zoghipour, A., & Zibaei, M. (2010). Effects of Trade Liberalization on Key Variables of Agricultural Sector in Iran: Computable General Equilibrium. Agricultural Economics, 3(4), 67-93. (In Persian)
پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 19، شماره 44
دی 1403
صفحه 101-123

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 03 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 16 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 اردیبهشت 1403

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