شبیه‌سازی تأثیر اصلاح قیمت بنزین بر تورم، رفاه کل و کسری بودجه دولت (رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی)

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه آزاد کرمان

2 دانشگاه آزاد کرمان

3 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده‌ی ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به ناکارایی‌های سیاست‌گذاری تخصیص یارانه بنزین در ایران، در این مطالعه به بررسی شبیه‌سازی 18 سناریو جهت اصلاح قیمت بنزین، در قالب نوع حذف یارانه (طی دوره سه، پنج و ده سال)، نوع جبران حمایتی (نقدی یا سهمیه‌ای) و سطح پوشش حمایتی (تمامی دهک‌های درآمدی، از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی و تنها از دهک‌های پائین درآمدی) بر مصرف بنزین، تورم عمومی، کسری بودجه دولت و رفاه کل پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، داده‌های مورد نیاز از ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران گردآوری شده و جهت تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از رهیافت جدید مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه‌پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در میان سناریوهای مورد بررسی، بهترین سناریو، سناریوی حذف یارانه بنزین طی دوره ده ساله (رساندن قیمت طی ده سال از 0.05 دلار/ لیتر کنونی به قیمت فوب خلیج فارس یعنی 1 دلار/ لیتر)، جبران حمایتی نقدی (پرداخت نقدی معادل سهمیه 60 لیتر بنزین ماهانه) و پوشش حمایتی از دهک‌های پائین و متوسط درآمدی می‌باشد. در این‌صورت، قیمت بنزین می‌بایست سالانه معادل 34.93 درصد افزایش یابد. همچنین، مصرف بنزین 8.0 درصد و کسری بودجه دولت 8.2 درصد کاهش یافته و تورم عمومی 8.5 درصد و رفاه کل 1.8 درصد افزایش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulating the Effect of Gasoline Price Reform on Inflation, Total Welfare and Government Budget Deficit (Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • RouhAllah Karimi 1
  • Ali Ali Raeispour Rajabali 2
  • Mohsen Zayanderoody 3
1 Ph.D. student of Islamic Azad University of Kerman
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Kerman Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Considering the problems caused by the inefficiencies of the current policy of gasoline subsidy allocation in Iran in this study, the results from the simulation of 18 scenarios to reform the price of gasoline, in the form of the type of gasoline subsidy removal (during a three-year period, during a five-year period, and during a ten-year period), the type of support compensation (cash or quota) and the level of support coverage (all income deciles, low and middle income deciles and only low income deciles) were analyzed on gasoline consumption, general inflation, government budget deficit and total welfare. For this purpose, the required data was collected from the social accounting matrix of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the new approach of the recursive dynamic calculable general equilibrium model (RDCGE) was used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the examined scenarios, the best scenario is the scenario of removing the gasoline subsidy during the ten-year period (bringing the price from the current $0.05/liter to the FOB Persian Gulf price of $1/liter), cash support compensation (payment Cash equivalent to the quota of 60 liters of gasoline per month) and support compensation for low and middle income deciles. In this case, the price of gasoline should increase annually by 34.93%. Also, gasoline consumption will decrease by 8.0% and the government budget deficit will decrease by 8.2%, and general inflation will increase by 8.5% and total welfare will increase by 1.8%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Gasoline price reform
  • inflation
  • total welfare
  • government budget deficit
  • recursive dynamic calculable general equilibrium model (RDCGE)

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 19، شماره 44
دی 1403
صفحه 125-149

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 18 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 12 مهر 1403

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