تحلیل تاثیر رشد اقتصادی بر رفاه در ایران با تاکید بر نقش نابرابری درآمد

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد انرژی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصادسنجی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

10.22080/mrl.2025.28042.2130

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شد اثر رشد اقتصادی بر رفاه اقتصادی ایران با تأکید بر نقش نابرابری درآمد در بازه زمانی ۱۳۵۷-۱۴۰۱ بررسی و آزمون شود. این بررسی با استفاده از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی انجام گرفت. برای این منظور، ابتدا رفاه اقتصادی با استفاده از شاخص ترکیبی مبتنی بر چهار بُعد جریان مصرف، انباشت ثروت، امنیت و توزیع درآمد برآورد شد. در این راستا در باب نابرابری درآمدی، از دو شاخص ضریب جینی و نسبت هزینه دهک دهم به دهک اول استفاده شد و الگوهای پژوهش بر اساس هر یک از این دو شاخص تصریح و برآورد گردید. نتایج محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی رفاه نشان می‌دهد که رفاه اقتصادی از برنامه اول تا برنامه پنجم توسعه روندی افزایشی داشته است. اما رشد اقتصادی و نابرابری درآمد روندی نوسانی را طی کرده‌اند. نتایج برآوردها در بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد که رشد اقتصادی اثری مطلوب (مثبت) بر رفاه اقتصادی داشته است، اما در سطوح بالاتر نابرابری درآمد، از میزان اثرگذاری مثبت رشد اقتصادی بر رفاه کاسته شده است. بیکاری و تورم اثر نامطلوب (منفی) و درآمد سرانه حقیقی اثر مطلوب (مثبت) بر رفاه داشته‌اند. علاوه بر این، در دوران پسا برجام (۱۳۹۶-۱۴۰۱)، سطح رفاه اقتصادی ایران به طور معناداری کاهش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Impact of Economic Growth on Welfare in Iran, with an Emphasis on the Role of Income Inequality

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahryar Zaroki 1
  • Reihane Angouraj Ghafari 2
  • Ahmadreza Ahmadi 3
  • Ehsan Ashuori 2
1 Associate Professor in Energy Economics, University of Mazandaran, Babilsar, Iran
2 Master's Student in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
3 Ph.D. Student in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the present study, an attempt was made to examine and test the impact of economic growth on Iran’s economic welfare, with an emphasis on the role of income inequality, during the period 1978–2022. This analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. To this end, economic welfare was first estimated using a composite index based on four dimensions: consumption flow, wealth stocks, income distribution and economic security. Regarding income inequality, two indicators were employed: the Gini coefficient and the ratio of the expenditure of the tenth decile to the first decile. The research models were specified and estimated based on each of these two indicators. The results of calculating the composite welfare index indicate that economic welfare followed an increasing trend from the First Development Plan to the Fifth Development Plan. However, economic growth and income inequality exhibited a fluctuating trend. The long-run estimation results reveal that economic growth has had a favorable (positive) effect on economic welfare. However, at higher levels of income inequality, the positive impact of economic growth on welfare diminishes. Unemployment and inflation have had adverse (negative) effects on welfare, while real GDP per capita has had a favorable (positive) impact. Moreover, during the post-JCPOA period (2017–2022), Iran’s economic welfare has significantly declined.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Welfare
  • Economic growth
  • Income inequality
  • Iran

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 45
اردیبهشت 1404
صفحه 77-109

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 24 آبان 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 فروردین 1404

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