بررسی آثار نامتقارن ادوار تجاری بر مصرف و انباشت ثروت در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد نظری دانشگاه مازندران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی دانشگاه مازندران

3 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران

10.22080/mrl.2025.28582.2156

چکیده

تولید و نوسانات آن یکی از عوامل مؤثر بر رفاه اقتصادی است. دوره‌های تجاری، به‌ویژه رونق و رکود، تأثیر مستقیمی بر رفاه دارند و چرخه‌های اقتصادی با الگوهای مصرف در این دوره‌ها به‌طور پیچیده‌ای در ارتباط هستند. رابطه بین رونق و رکود اقتصادی تأثیر قابل توجهی بر جریان ثروت، حرکت سرمایه، ثروت خانوارها و نابرابری درآمدی دارد. جریان مصرف و انباشت ثروت، الگوی رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان و ذخیره‌سازی سرمایه را نشان می‌دهد. کشور در حال حاضر با چالش‌های متعددی در زمینه جریان مصرف و انباشت ثروت روبرو است که بر رشد و رفاه اقتصادی تأثیرگذار است. هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی آثار نامتقارن رونق و رکود بر مصرف و انباشت ثروت در ایران طی سال‌های 1350 تا 1402 است. جهت تحلیل آثار نامتقارن تولید، در این پژوهش از روش خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که رونق اقتصادی موجب افزایش مصرف و انباشت ثروت و رکود اقتصادی سبب کاهش آن‌ها می‌شود. همچنین، آثار نامطلوب رکود بر مصرف و انباشت ثروت به‌طور معناداری بیشتر از آثار مطلوب رونق است و این آثار نامتقارن در بلندمدت تشدید می‌شود. علاوه بر این، تورم و بیکاری تأثیر معکوس و اندازه دولت تأثیر مثبت بر مصرف دارند. مضافاً اینکه تورم و اندازه دولت به‌طور مستقیم بر انباشت ثروت تأثیر دارند، در حالی که نرخ بیکاری اثر معکوس دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Business Cycles on Consumption and Wealth Accumulation in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee 1
  • Shahryar Zaroki 2
  • Mehdi Hasanpour Varkolaei 3
1 Department of Theoretical Economics,, University of Mazandaran
2 Associate Professor in Energy Economics, University of Mazandaran
3 M.A. in Economics, University of Mazandaran,
چکیده [English]

Production and its fluctuations are one of the factors affecting economic welfare. Business cycles, especially booms and busts, have a direct impact on welfare, and business cycles are intricately linked to consumption patterns during these periods. The relationship between booms and busts has a significant impact on wealth flows, capital movements, household wealth, and income inequality. The flow of consumption and the accumulation of wealth reflect the patterns of consumer behavior and capital storage. The country is currently facing multiple challenges regarding consumption flow and wealth accumulation, which significantly impact economic growth and welfare. The aim of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of booms and busts on consumption and wealth accumulation in Iran during the years 1971 to 2023. To analyze the asymmetric effects of output, this study employs the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method. The results indicate that economic booms lead to an increase in consumption and wealth accumulation, while economic busts lead to a decrease in them. Furthermore, the adverse effects of busts on consumption and wealth accumulation are significantly greater than the positive effects of booms, and these asymmetric effects intensify in the long run. In addition, inflation and unemployment have a negative impact on consumption, while government size has a positive impact. Similarly, inflation and government size directly affect wealth accumulation, while the unemployment rate has an inverse effect.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wealth accumulation
  • Economy of Iran
  • consumption
  • Business cycles

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 48
دی 1404
صفحه 31-53

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 19 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 05 اردیبهشت 1404

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