تاثیر تورم، سیاست پولی و نااطمینانی اقتصادی بر آموزش عالی، مطالعه کشورهای منتخب اسلامی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسنده

دانشگاه پیام نور

10.22080/mrl.2025.28203.2132

چکیده

آموزش عالی برای توسعه نیروی انسانی و تحول ملی از طریق آموزش، پژوهش و خدمات اجتماعی کاربرد دارد. از زمان رکود بزرگ 1929 تا پس از پاندمی کووید-19، تلاش های تحقیقاتی گوناگون، برای تحلیل اثرات عدم قطعیت اقتصادی بر شاخص های زیربنایی، از جمله آموزش عالی، صورت گرفته است. پس از انقلاب فناوری اطلاعات و گسترش با وقفه آن به کشورهای در حال توسعه و توجه بیشتر خانوارها به آموزش عالی و همچنین افزایش تقاضای نیروی کار تحصیلکرده توسط بنگاه ها، از سال 2000 تا 2019، روند افزایشی و سپس نزولی داشته است. در این تحقیق، تاثیر متغیرهای اقتصادی بویژه تورم، سیاست های پولی و همچنین نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی بر تقاضای ثبت نام در آموزش عالی بررسی شد. کشورهای مورد مطالعه، شامل ایران، ترکیه، مصر، اردن، کویت، عمان، عربستان، قطرو پاکستان بودند. دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه، از سال 1971 تا 2022 بود. روش اقتصادسنجی بکار رفته در بررسی مدل، روش گشتاور تعمیم یافته سیستمی بود. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ ثبت نام در مقطع متوسطه، نسبت شهرنشینی به کل جمعیت ، شاخص نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی، پول گسترده به عنوان شاخص سیاست های پولی و سهم مخارج آموزشی در مخارج دولت، دارای تاثیر مثبت و معنادار و از سوی دیگر، شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده و برهم کنش تورم، پول و نااطمینانی دارای تاثیر منفی و معنادار بر تقاضای ثبت نام در آموزش عالی بودند. سهم مخارج خانوارها به کل تولید ناخالص داخلی و نسبت جمعیت جوان به کل جمعیت، تاثیر معناداری بر تقاضای ثبت نام در آموزش عالی در کشورهای مورد مطالعه نداشتند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of inflation, monetary policy and economic uncertainty on higher education, a study of selected Islamic countries.

نویسنده [English]

  • MOHAMMAD REZA Babaei Semiromi
payame noor university
چکیده [English]

Higher education serves human resource development and national transformation through education, research, and social service. Since the Great Depression of 1929 until the COVID-19 pandemic, various research efforts have been made to analyze the effects of economic uncertainty on underlying indicators, including higher education. After the information technology revolution and its intermittent spread to developing countries and the increased attention of households to higher education, as well as the increased demand for educated labor by firms, it has had an increasing and then decreasing trend from 2000 to 2019.In this study, the impact of economic variables, especially inflation, monetary policies, and economic policy uncertainty, on the demand for enrollment in higher education was examined. The countries studied included Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan. The time period studied was from 1971 to 2022. The econometric method used in examining the model was the generalized system moment method. The results of the study showed that GDP per capita, secondary school enrollment rate, urbanization ratio to total population, global uncertainty index and broad money as an indicator of monetary policies and the share of education expenditure in government expenditure had a positive and significant effect, and on the other hand, the consumer price index and the interaction of inflation, money and uncertainty had a negative and significant effect on the demand for enrollment in higher education. The share of household expenditure to total GDP and the ratio of the young population to the total population did not have a significant effect on the demand for enrollment in higher education in the countries studied.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Higher education
  • inflation
  • economic policy uncertainty
  • monetary policy

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 45
اردیبهشت 1404
صفحه 135-162

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 23 آذر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 23 اسفند 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 05 اردیبهشت 1404

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