واکاوی پیوندهای میان نااطمینانی مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی: یک تحلیل زمان-فرکانس برای اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد ، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد ، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

10.22080/mrl.2025.29765.2194

چکیده

از پیش‌بینی‌پذیری سیاست مالی به عنوان یکی از ارکان ثبات بخشی به اقتصاد یاد می‌شود. اما، ارتباط میان آن و بخش حقیقی محل مناقشه است. از یک سو، نااطمینانی با ایجاد تأخیر در سرمایه‌گذاری و مصرف می‌تواند اثرات منفی بر اقتصاد داشته باشد؛ از سوی دیگر، رونق در اقتصادهای وابسته به منابع ممکن است با آثار بی‌ثبات‌کننده‌ای همراه باشد. این پیچیدگی در اقتصاد ایران، که به علت نفتی بودن مخارج دولت در آن نقش اساسی دارند، اهمیت ویژه‌ دارد. این مقاله می کوشد تا با استفاده از تبدیل موجک پیوسته به بررسی ارتباط میان نااطمینانی مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران در بازه زمانی ۱۳۷۰-۱۴۰۱، بپردازد.برای دستیابی به تحلیل دقیق‌تر، نااطمینانی به دو سنجه متمایز نااطمینانی در آهنگ رشد مخارج (شاخصی از بی‌ثباتی در رفتار دولت) و نااطمینانی در نسبت مخارج به تولید (شاخصی از بی‌ثباتی در جایگاه نسبی دولت) تفکیک شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که این رابطه در افق‌های زمانی و شرایط اقتصادی متفاوت، از الگوهای متمایزی پیروی می‌کند. تحلیل یافته‌ها، سه قاعده‌مندی تجربی کلان را نشان می‌دهد. نخست، در دوره‌های بحرانی (دهه 1390)، نااطمینانی به عنوان یک لنگر رکودی عمل کرده و رابطه علّی منفی و مستحکم با رشد اقتصادی برقرار می‌کند. دوم، نتایج یک پارادوکس رونق را نشان می‌دهد. با خروج از بحران (۱۳۷۳-۱۳۷۴)، مرحله رونق اقتصادی به منبعی برای افزایش نااطمینانی در مخارج آتی تبدیل شده و ضعف نهادهای مالی در مهار سیاست‌های موافق چرخه‌ای را نشان می‌دهد. در نهایت، در بلندمدت رابطه‌ای بین نااطمینانی مخارج دولت و رشد اقتصادی وجود ندارد. این یافته‌ها، که حساسیت نتایج به انتخاب ابزار سنجش را نمایان می‌سازند، گویای پیچیدگی کانال‌های اثرگذاری نااطمینانی در اقتصاد ایران می‌باشند و دلالت‌های سیاستی مهمی را برای مدیریت ثبات مالی به همراه دارند که درک آن‌ها برای سیاست‌گذاران و پژوهشگران علاقه‌مند به اقتصاد ایران می‌تواند مفید باشد

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Unpacking the Linkages between Government Expenditure Uncertainty and Economic Growth: A Time-Frequency Analysis for the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyyedeh Zahra Asghari Hoseinabadi 1
  • Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh 2
  • Narjes Zamani 3
1 M.A. Student in Economics, University of Gillan, Rasht, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economic, University of Gillan, Rasht, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economic, University of Gillan, Rasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

First, during periods of crisis, fiscal uncertainty acts as a 'recessionary anchor,' establishing a strong negative causal link with economic growth. Second, the results reveal a 'paradox of prosperity': emerging from a crisis, economic recovery itself becomes a source of future expenditure uncertainty, exposing the weakness of institutions in curbing pro-cyclical policies. Finally, the absence of a long-run relationship implies the dominance of fundamental and structural factors over fiscal policy uncertainty. These findings, which highlight the sensitivity of the results to the choice of measurement proxy, underscore the complexity of uncertainty's transmission channels in the Iranian economy. An understanding of these dynamic patterns offers crucial policy implications for managing fiscal stability, which are discussed in detail in the paper.
First, during periods of crisis, fiscal uncertainty acts as a 'recessionary anchor,' establishing a strong negative causal link with economic growth. Second, the results reveal a 'paradox of prosperity': emerging from a crisis, economic recovery itself becomes a source of future expenditure uncertainty, exposing the weakness of institutions in curbing pro-cyclical policies. Finally, the absence of a long-run relationship implies the dominance of fundamental and structural factors over fiscal policy uncertainty. These findings, which highlight the sensitivity of the results to the choice of measurement proxy, underscore the complexity of uncertainty's transmission channels in the Iranian economy. An understanding of these dynamic patterns offers crucial policy implications for managing fiscal stability, which are discussed in detail in the paper.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Fiscal Policy Uncertainty
  • Government Expenditure
  • Time-Frequency Analysis

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 47
آذر 1404
صفحه 7-38

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 10 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 05 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مهر 1404

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