نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسنده
گروه مطالعات فرامنطقه ای و جهانی، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The global economy is increasingly grappling with the phenomenon of economic uncertainty, a key factor that has become an influential core affecting the decision-making of economic actors as well as the state of social welfare and justice. This article, adopting a comparative and innovative approach, meticulously investigates the impacts of economic uncertainty on the income gap in the economies of Iran and the Russian Federation. To achieve this objective, extensive quarterly data from the 2004-2024 period has been used. The innovative component of this research is the design and construction of a quantitative Uncertainty Index (GTU) based on real and dynamic Google Trends data, utilizing native and country-specific keywords. For data analysis, the ARDL econometric approach was employed to distinguish between short-term and long-term effects.
The findings reveal that economic uncertainty significantly affects income inequality in both countries; however, the crucial point is the fundamental differences in the mechanism, intensity, and temporal dynamics of these effects. At the core of the results lies the surprising finding that uncertainty shocks in both countries, across both short-term and long-term horizons, lead to a reduction in income inequality. But this reducing effect is considerably stronger and has a faster adjustment speed for Iran compared to Russia. This phenomenon can be interpreted as resulting from the greater vulnerability of assets and incomes of the affluent class in Iran's volatile and unstable economy, where wealth is exposed to more severe fluctuations.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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