نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 کرمان، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، دانشکده کشاورزی، بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی
2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران.
3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد ، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study investigates the impact of various economic shock on macroeconomic variables to guide optimal decision-making in the face of such disturbances. Focusing on shocks to digital economy indicators, in particular ICT indices, we adopt a six-equation DSGE model to examine their effects on food security. The results show the mechanisms by which ICT shocks influence Iran’s macroeconomic fundamentals. Initially, ICT shocks raise unemployment. Subsequently, through the creation of new products, new activities, and new markets, new employment opportunities emerge, reducing the probability of filling vacancies in both sectors and thereby increasing overall employment. Simultaneously, population movements out of the labor force toward job search migrate to the expanded labor market, reducing leisure time. In other words, the observed rise in unemployment reflects a surge in labor supply and labor-market entry rather than a lack of job creation.
Moreover, higher employment—via its complementary relationship with capital—stimulates investment in both sectors. Increased employment and the stock of capital raise output in both sectors. However, higher employment and resulting wage suppression reduce health expenditures in both sectors, while, finally, food security— operationalized as a weighted composite of health expenditures, food production, and food price inflation—declines. In sum, ICT shocks, by lowering wages and health spending, contribute to a reduction in overall food security within the model, despite augmented employment and investment. These findings highlight the complex channels through which ICT-driven disturbances affect macroeconomic aggregates and food security, underscoring the importance of policy design that mitigates adverse welfare and health outcomes while leveraging productivity gains from ICT advancements.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)