تحلیل مقایسه‌ای فرضیه‌های منحنی کوزنتس زیست‌محیطی (EKC) و منحنی کوزنتس انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر (RKC) در ایران

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار. گروه اقتصاد. دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی. دانشگاه ایلام. ایلام. ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

10.22080/mrl.2025.30134.2202

چکیده

در دنیای امروز، با توجه به چالش‌های محیط‌زیستی و نیاز به گذار به سمت منابع انرژی پاک و تجدیدپذیر، تحلیل ارتباط بین توسعه اقتصادی و آلودگی زیست‌محیطی از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. در این تحقیق در دو مدل جداگانه با استفاده از داده‌های دوره 1965 تا 2023 و روش حداقل مربعات پویا (DOLS) به تحلیل مقایسه‌ای فرضیه‌های منحنی کوزنتس زیست‌محیطی (EKC) و منحنی کوزنتس انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر (RKC) در ایران پرداخته شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که درآمد سرانه و مصرف انرژی‌های فسیلی تأثیر مثبت بر انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن دارند و با افزایش درآمد سرانه، به‌تدریج روند کاهش آلودگی‌ها آغاز می‌شود. همچنین، در مدل RKC مشاهده شد که مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر در مراحل اولیه رشد اقتصادی کاهش می‌یابد، اما با افزایش درآمد سرانه در مراحل بعدی، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر به‌طور معناداری افزایش می‌یابد. بنابراین، هر دو فرضیه منحنی کوزنتس زیست‌محیطی (رابطه U معکوس) و منحنی کوزنتس انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر (رابطه U شکل) برای ایران تأیید می‌شوند. آستانه مدل EKC در ایران برابر با 707 دلار و آستانه مدل RKC برابر با 3719 دلار است. این نشان می‌دهد که فرضیه منحنی کوزنتس زیست‌محیطی زودتر از منحنی کوزنتس انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر به وقوع می‌پیوندد، به این معنا که تغییرات مثبت در کاهش آلودگی‌ها و استفاده از منابع انرژی پاک‌تر در مراحل اولیه رشد اقتصادی ایران شروع می‌شود. بر اساس این یافته‌ها، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با تمرکز بر توسعه فناوری‌های پاک و ارتقای درآمد سرانه در مراحل ابتدایی رشد اقتصادی، حرکت به سمت کاهش آلودگی‌ها و استفاده از منابع انرژی تجدیدپذیر تسریع شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Renewable Energy Kuznets Curve (RKC) Hypotheses in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fereshteh Mohamadian 1
  • hussein Raheem hussein 2
  • mundher Azeez abdulridha 2
  • muntadher Riyadh shaeewit 2
1 Assistant Professor. Department of Economics. Faculty of Literature and Humanities. University of Ilam. Ilam. Iran
2 Master's student in Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
چکیده [English]

In today's world, considering environmental challenges and the need to transition toward clean and renewable energy sources, analyzing the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution is of particular importance. This study conducts a comparative analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the Renewable Energy Kuznets Curve (RKC) hypotheses in Iran using two separate models, based on data from 1965 to 2023 and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The results show that per capita income and fossil fuel consumption have a significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, and as per capita income increases, pollution levels gradually begin to decline. Furthermore, in the RKC model, it was observed that renewable energy consumption decreases in the early stages of economic growth but significantly increases in the later stages as income rises. Therefore, both the inverted U-shaped EKC and the U-shaped RKC hypotheses are confirmed for Iran. The EKC threshold in Iran is $707, while the RKC threshold is $3,719. This indicates that the EKC hypothesis materializes earlier than the RKC hypothesis, meaning that positive changes in pollution reduction and the use of cleaner energy sources begin in the early stages of Iran’s economic growth. Based on these findings, it is recommended to focus on the development of clean technologies and improving per capita income in the early stages of economic growth to accelerate the reduction of pollution and the adoption of renewable energy sources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Environmental Kuznets Curve
  • Renewable Energy Kuznets Curve
  • Per Capita Income
  • Iran

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 48
دی 1404
صفحه 89-117

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