تاثیر تضعیف ارزش پول ملی در اثر‌گذاری تورم بر رشد اقتصادی ایران: کاربردی از شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

نوع مقاله : علمی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

2 عضو هیئت علمی گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد ارومیه

3 گروه ریاضی، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

10.22080/mrl.2025.29585.2188

چکیده

چکیده:
تلاطم های شدید ارزی، به یکی از ویژگی های اقتصاد ایران طی دهه های اخیر تبدیل شده است. در این خصوص، علاوه بر دلایل اقتصادی توجیه کننده تغییرات نرخ ارز، بویژه تغییرات ارزش دلار آمریکا، سیاست ارزی تضعیف ارزش پول ملی توسط دولت نیز، بدلیل وسعت آثار قابل پیش بینی بر اقتصاد کشور، مورد توجه پژوهشگران قرار دارد. این سیاست، بویژه مورد تایید تحلیل گران اقتصادی قرار می گیرد که از استراتژی توسعه صادرات حمایت می کنند. لیکن، برخی دیگر از تحلیل گران اقتصادی به آثار تورمی اجرای این سیاست توجه بیشتری دارند. این مطالعه به منظور بررسی برخی آثار اقتصادی اجرای این سیاست، به بررسی تاثیر تضعیف ارزش پول ملی در اثر گذاری تورم بر رشد اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی 2023-1980 در ایران، می پردازد. بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده در این مطالعه، همچنان که نمی توان از سیاست کنترل مستقیم نرخ ارز دفاع کرد، ولی آثار مثبت و انبساطی نرخ تورم بر رشد اقتصادی تحت تأثیر تضعیف ارزش پول ملی در بازار آزاد ثابت می شود. لیکن، در کشور ایران که کنترل نرخ تورم باید در اولویت اهداف و سیاست های اقتصادی قرار بگیرد، از سیاست تضعیف ارزش پول ملی هم به سادگی نمی توان حمایت کرد. در واقع، پیش نیاز موفقیت اجرای سیاست های پیشرفته اقتصادی، بررسی عمیق زیرساختها، متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان تأثیرگذار و سطح توسعه یافتگی در کشور است. در این مطالعه، سطح شاخص های توسعه مالی و سرمایه فیزیکی بعنوان زیرساخت و مؤثرین متغیرها بر رشد اقتصادی مورد توجه قرار گرفته اند.

کلمات کلیدی: تضعیف ارزش پول ملی، تورم، توسعه مالی، رشد اقتصادی ایران.
طبقه بندی JEL: F31, F41, F43, O24.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of National Currency undervaluation on the Impact of Inflation on Iran’s Economic Growth: An Application of Artificial Neural Networks

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Hakimi 1
  • Tahereh Akhoondzadeh Yousefi 2
  • Ahmad Jafarian 3
1 Department of Economics, Ur. C., Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
2 Department of Economic, Ur. C., Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
3 Department of Mathematics, Ur. C., Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent decades, extreme currency fluctuations have become one of the characteristics of Iran’s economy. In this regard, in addition to the economic factors that justify exchange rate changes (particularly fluctuations in the value of the USD) the government’s policy of undervaluation the national currency has attracted significant attention due to the extent of its predictable effects on the national economy. This policy is particularly emphasized by economic analysts who support development strategies. However, other analysts focus more on the inflationary consequences of implementing such policies. So as to scrutinize the economic effects of implementing this policy, the present study examines impact of national currency undervaluation on the effect of inflation on economic growth in Iran from 1980 to 2023. According to the results, although the direct control of exchange rates cannot be defended, the positive and expansionary effects of inflation on economic growth due to the national currency undervaluation in the free market are demonstrated. Nonetheless, in a country like Iran, where controlling inflation must be a top priority for economic goals and policies, the policy of depreciating the national currency cannot easily be supported. In fact, the successful implementation of advanced economic policies requires a deep examination of the country's infrastructure, influential macroeconomic variables, and level of development. The present study focuses on the level of financial development and physical capital indices as infrastructures and effective variables influencing economic growth. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic growth
  • Economic policies
  • Financial development
  • Inflation
  • National currency undervaluation

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پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان Macroeconomics Research Letter
دوره 20، شماره 48
دی 1404
صفحه 155-184

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 10 تیر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 18 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 آبان 1404

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