نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار موسسه غیرانتفاعی آفاق ارومیه
2 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم انسانی دانشگاه آفاق ارومیه
3 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی مالی،دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد، واحد تبریز، تبریز، ایران
4 کارشناس ارشد گروه مدیریت و امور مالی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، مؤسسه آموزش عالی آفاق، ارومیه، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Empirical studies on the relationship between the oil market and exchange rates indicate that, in many oil-dependent economies—particularly in Iran—this relationship is both asymmetric in magnitude and direction, and time-varying. In this study, using daily data on crude oil prices and the USD/IRR exchange rate for the period from November 26, 2011, to April 10, 2025, and applying the wavelet coherence method, we examine the correlation structure between these two variables across short-, medium-, and long-term time scales. The results reveal that, in many periods, negative oil price shocks have exerted a stronger and more persistent impact on increasing the exchange rate, whereas the effect of positive shocks has been generally weaker and less stable. Moreover, the relationship between oil shocks and the exchange rate in Iran does not consistently conform to theoretical expectations and, in many instances, exhibits paradoxical behavior. Specifically, positive oil shocks (oil price increases) in the medium and long term have not led to a reduction in the exchange rate; rather, due to factors such as increased imports, expansion of government expenditures, heightened inflation expectations, and the absence of exchange rate stabilization mechanisms, they have in some cases resulted in a higher exchange rate. Conversely, negative oil shocks (oil price declines), in line with classical patterns, have reduced foreign exchange earnings and constrained the government’s capacity to manage the currency market, thereby driving the exchange rate upward.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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