نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسنده
هیات علمی وابسته دانشگاه آزاد واحد کرج
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The main objective of this study is to quantify the role of technology shocks, takaful (cooperative insurance), and zakat (wealth tax) in reducing macroeconomic fluctuations in Iran within a small-open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. In this setup, Islamic mechanisms replace the interest-based system, and financing is conducted through sukuk whose return is tied to inflation and output growth. The economy is modeled as a household, firm, government and external sector system and calibrated using Iranian quarterly data for 2005–2022 (sources: Central Bank of Iran, Customs Administration, World Bank). The sukuk profit rate is set in an anti-inflationary and growth-sensitive manner; zakat is counter-cyclical, with 85 % of proceeds injected into liquidity-constrained households; and takaful smooths income risk. Stability is checked through Blanchard-Kahn conditions and a Bayesian factor. A one-standard-deviation technology shock raises output, consumption, and investment by 0.35 %, 0.35 %, and 0.30 %, respectively. Takaful boosts consumption by 0.35 % without creating inflationary pressure, while zakat channels resources to high-MPC agents and lifts output by 0.15 %. The simulated standard deviation of output (1.7 %) almost matches the empirical value (1.8 %), and a Bayes factor of 12.2 strongly favours the Islamic specification. The optimal policy package comprises counter-cyclical zakat in booms, expanded takaful in recessions, and a state-contingent sukuk return rule; this interest-free scheme curbs volatility and raises lower-income welfare by up to 1.02 %.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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