نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری رشته علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه علوم اقتصادی, واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Export diversification is a crucial strategy for reducing the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies to external shocks and global energy price fluctuations. This study examines the determinants of the “extensive margin of exports”—a novel metric for assessing the capacity to enter new export lines. Specifically, it investigates the roles of exchange rate dynamics, natural resource rents, and Weighted Revealed Comparative Advantage (WRCA) in selected oil-exporting Middle Eastern countries from 2016 to 2024. To empirically test these relationships and address potential endogeneity, the study employs a dynamic panel data approach using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The findings indicate that real exchange rate depreciation serves as a potent driver for expanding the export margin and penetrating new markets by enhancing price competitiveness. Interestingly, and contrary to conventional expectations, exchange rate volatility also exerts a positive impact on export diversification. This suggests the activation of adaptive mechanisms by firms aiming to hedge risks through market diversification. Conversely, the results reveal the negative and inhibitory effects of natural resource rents and reliance on traditional comparative advantages, providing statistical evidence for the “Dutch Disease” and the trap of static advantages in these economies. Furthermore, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was identified as the primary driver for enhancing export capacity. The study implies that transitioning away from a resource-dependent economy requires flexible exchange rate policies, efficient management of oil revenues to mitigate the counter-productive effects of rent, and investment in productivity enhancement rather than reliance on raw material exports.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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