نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد،گروه اقتصاد،دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study investigates the dynamics of monetary base fluctuations in Iran's economy, with a particular focus on the role of critical variables such as oil prices, economic sanctions, and the exchange rate across different quantiles of the monetary base distribution. Moving beyond simple averages, we employ quantile regression to understand how these factors affect the entire spectrum of the monetary base distribution (from recessionary to boom periods). Our findings indicate that oil revenues act as a driving force, exerting a significant positive impact on the monetary base, especially when the monetary base is at high levels—a situation that may exacerbate inflationary pressures. In contrast, economic sanctions serve as a constraining factor, playing a contractionary role and preventing disproportionate liquidity growth, albeit with its own economic costs. The exchange rate, as a key variable, influences the monetary base through various channels and undermines its stability. Based on these precise findings, comprehensive policy recommendations are proposed that emphasize active and intelligent management of oil revenues, reducing vulnerability to sanctions shocks, and effectively controlling exchange rate fluctuations through the coordination of monetary and foreign exchange policies. We maintain that adopting flexible policy approaches grounded in a quantile-based understanding of economic dynamics is key to achieving economic stability and curbing inflation within the framework of Iran's economy. The validity of our methodology is confirmed by standard diagnostic tests.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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