نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد
2 Department of Economics University of Isfahan Hezar-jar
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This research employs a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the economic consequences of trade policies on firm financing in Iran. A key innovation of this study is the endogenization of the “financing constraint channel” within a bank-oriented economy, where firms are compelled to rely more heavily on domestic credit resources to offset the rising costs of intermediate inputs resulting from tariff shocks. In this model, the real interest rate is defined as a function of inflationary uncertainty and credit conditions to trace the transmission path of trade shocks to the real sector of the economy. Simulation results indicate that increasing import tariffs, while creating cost-push and inflationary pressures, exacerbates uncertainties and raises interest rates in the credit market. This process induces a “credit crunch,” which restricts firms’ working capital financing capacity, leading to a decline in investment and a reduction in output growth (approximately 0.9 percent). The findings suggest that in economies with inefficient financial markets, tariff shocks do not necessarily improve the trade balance; instead, by disrupting firms’ financial balance sheets, they jeopardize economic growth in the medium term. Consequently, this study emphasizes the necessity of “coordination between trade and monetary policies,” suggesting that any revision in tariff rates must be accompanied by structural reforms in the credit allocation system to mitigate firms’ vulnerability to the costs imposed by trade policy and to ensure production stability.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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