نوع مقاله : علمی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اداری، دانشگاه مازندران
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study investigates the role of government inefficiency in the transmission and effects of macroeconomic shocks on the main macroeconomic variables of the Iranian economy. To this end, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model incorporating an inefficient government sector is developed and estimated using Iranian economic data. The model parameters are estimated based on quarterly data covering the period from 1991Q1 to 2021Q4, employing Bayesian estimation and the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The impulse response analysis indicates that technology shocks do not exert a significant effect on output and are largely absorbed through monetary and nominal variables, such as inflation and real money balances, reflecting the weakness of the supply-side transmission mechanism in the Iranian economy. Furthermore, government inefficiency shocks directly increase inflation and interest rates while reducing real money balances, without causing a substantial decline in output. These findings highlight the institutional nature of government inefficiency and its role in amplifying macroeconomic instability. The forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that oil revenue shocks account for a large share of fluctuations in output and government expenditure, while their impact on inflation and other macroeconomic variables remains limited. This suggests that, under conditions of government inefficiency, oil revenues are primarily transmitted to the economy through increased public spending and aggregate demand stimulation rather than through productivity enhancement and sustainable economic growth. In addition, although government consumption and investment expenditure shocks raise output in the short run, their effects on other macroeconomic variables are not persistent due to institutional weaknesses and inefficient resource allocation. Overall, the findings emphasize that government inefficiency is a key factor undermining the effectiveness of fiscal policy and constraining the positive effects of oil revenue shocks in Iran. Therefore, institutional reforms and improvements in government efficiency are essential prerequisites for achieving sustainable growth and macroeconomic stability.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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